Europe Warned It Is Running Out of Time to Prepare for Wider War With Russia
20 days ago by tardigrade to c/europe
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The conference “A Vision of a United Europe: Shared Defense, Diplomacy, and Geopolitical Agency” was held in Kyiv on Sept. 18, bringing together Ukrainian and European politicians, diplomats, researchers and security experts to discuss Europe’s ability to respond to Russia’s war against Ukraine and growing geopolitical challenges.
A recurring message throughout the conference was that Europe cannot continue relying on assumptions that a major war is impossible on the continent.
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Several speakers argued that Russia’s war in Ukraine should be viewed as part of a broader confrontation with the European security order, while others warned that Europe is already losing, or has nearly lost, the hybrid conflict being waged against it.
The conference is set to continue in Vienna from Oct. 2-4, when a Paneuropa Congress will take place. A draft Vienna Declaration has already been prepared and is expected to be presented after the two events.
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Reinhard Kloucek, president of Paneuropa Austria, said a generation of European politicians had grown up believing that war was something that happened elsewhere rather than on the continent.
“That makes you lazy,” he said.
Kloucek argued that the international order is already changing and that Europe needs to become an independent geopolitical actor rather than remaining dependent on the US, China or Russia.
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Kloucek also added that Ukraine is central to Europe’s ability to develop such a geopolitical role.
“The clear point is if we, as Europe, want to play a geo-political role, we need Ukraine,” he said, adding that Russia’s success in conquering Ukraine would demonstrate its ability to divide Europe despite the continent’s greater economic potential.
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Valeriy Pekar, chairman of the board of the NGO Decolonization, offered one of the conference’s most detailed scenarios for how a wider European conflict could begin.
He argued that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 should not necessarily be viewed as the model for future Russian military action. Instead, he pointed to what he described as Russia’s concept of “liminal war” – a conflict designed to create uncertainty over whether and how an adversary should respond.
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Pekar said a future confrontation could begin with a combination of missile and drone strikes, sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, political influence operations and covert activity, potentially without the immediate deployment of ground forces.
He used Poland as a hypothetical example, saying a combination of attacks and infrastructure disruption could create a refugee crisis and undermine European decision-making.
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and consumed with fending off the far right.
I wish. Then, at least, something would come out of it. They're consumed with...I don't even know whatever that shit is they're doing. But it's certainly not fending off the far right.
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I think I’m not alone in having already conceded to the inevitability of a war with Russia.
Theoretically there is a lot that Europe could have done to re-arm and to halt Russian aggression, but the reality is that we have national politicians that are both unable to grasp the risks and implications of war and consumed with fending off the far right.
Our intelligence agencies and lawmakers are also failing to combat the information war and the hybrid attacks on European infrastructure, and the EU (as an institution) is just not up to the task of leading and governing an continent-wide military and geopolitical response. Now, top that off with the absolute political crisis that’s happening in the US and you’re presented with an historic opportunity for Putin to try and redraw the map in Russia’s favor.
It’s like hearing the echo’s of the 1930’s: societies are deeply divided, armies ill equiped, politicians are clinging to idle hopes and appeasement and everyday people already suspect what’s coming.
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