Mainstream News Anchors Now Talking About the AI Bubble Bursting at Any Moment: "I think the entire AI boom is investing in the wrong future."
2 days ago by eicker to c/technology
AI will live on but maybe as open weight models running on your laptop. There is no reason to believe that the cloud model is the only possible way for this to work. And there's only so long that any company can lose billions of dollars a year.
qwen flash is great. Privacy/sovereignty and protection from others stealing your data is very valuable and equivalence to frontier 3-4 months ago is very impressive. Your point is correct, and larger models have the capacity to solve problems with more general knowledge baked in, where smaller models simply can't find critical information from search, or develop a strategy as well if they are clueless, and just repeatedly randomly guessing.
Totally agree on the privacy sovereignty front. I suspect in the long run personal tasks will be handled by local models for this reason. I guess I’m thinking more on the scale of institutional compute. Just like every large university has their own super compute cluster I expect them to want their own AI instance (I know companies like Amazon already have such a thing) and in those instances the gap in skill really matters and these institutions are willing to pay a fair amount for the best out there.
Also I can’t speak on equivalence with frontier models 3-4 months ago because I didn’t have access to paid models back then but if that’s true and not just bench maxxing then it means the moat is widening not shrinking. Which suggests these labs are in a good position to make themselves an asset the US cannot afford to lose despite their comically costly business model.
The moat is shrinking overall for open models, but for models that fit in under 128gb ram, passing opus 4.6 and pushing up against 4.8 is an impressive achievement.
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I truly can’t see the bubble bursting at this point. They’ve won their race and built a technology so impressive it cannot be ignored or dropped. AI dominance is now a matter of nations (cyber) security. As soon as they’re any real chance of these labs failing they’ll be a tax payer bailout. I just hope it also results in nationalizing the leading AI labs so the models build on public knowledge can be forced into the public domain where they belong
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