Malthus Was Right

2 years ago by eleitl to c/collapse

Although Earth Overshoot Day is still somewhat off (in 2024 it falls on August 1), I’m reposting this old essay of mine nevertheless, as I still find it relevant today. (Mind you, I don’t do reposts often, but as I was travelling throughout last week, I had no time putting together a decent post… Please accept my apologies if you’ve already read it.) So, without further ado, here is my take on ecological overshoot, edited for clarity. Enjoy!
Hillmarsh 2 points 2 years ago

It has gotten to be dogma that "Malthus was proven wrong" on all sides of the mainstream's political spectrum. I always found that odd, because he didn't make any predictions. All of his work was based on historical data and known cases; he was very much a British empiricist. The only prediction in his essay, to the extent he made any, was that the principles wouldn't change in the future because of some nebulous "progress".

And they didn't. What happened instead, as the article rightly notes, is that we temporarily increased carrying capacity. And in so doing we built a trap for ourselves from which we won't be extricated in the coming decades. No one knows exactly how the trajectory of energy and resource descent will play out, but that it will happen, is happening now, is not in doubt.

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Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.


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