What the 3.5% Rule Tells Us About Protest Success
a year ago by Jesus to c/politics
She doesn’t claim that you need to hit 3.5% and then you’re magically able to overthrow an authoritarian government.
She notes that disciplined nonviolent resistance, focused around a concise and relatable message, is a characteristic of successful movements. And that turnout number is a common artifact of movement who are focused, strategic, and disciplined. The number in and of itself is not the goal.
If this is what I think it is, it's also highly selective in what to include. If it wasn't successful it's not included, for some reason or another. It's somewhat useful, but it's far from being a rule.
Listen to the first half of this podcast as Chenoweth explains what the cavets are to this rule. She describes it more of as a descriptive rule not prescriptive rule, and suggests many other circumstances going on in addition to achieving this rule. Further régimes have adapted to this rule since it was first discovered and she's still truing to see what that adaptation means.
You Are Not So Smart: 313 - The 3.5 Percent Rule - Erica Chenoweth
Episode webpage: https://youarenotsosmart.com/
Media file: https://stitcher.simplecastaudio.com/...
Yeah, and being a counter force within the intention of not permitting that to happen by generating division between the protesters for example. Still, the point of the 3,5% rule is not like something written in a stone, just a statical analysis who have that fact and investigation is not finished, and new events may demonstrate something else.
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I keep seeing this but the claim is dubious at best and feel like conflating correlation with causation. While the examples cited were largely non violent they had aspects and sub movements advocating violence and destruction, so any outcomes cannot be isolated in a way to make this claim.
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