Westminster voting intention: Labour leads by 20%; Redfield & Wilton Strategies Poll

3 years ago by that_ginger_one to c/uk_politics

Westminster VI (18 June):

Labour 46% (+2) Conservative 26% (-4) Liberal Democrat 12% (-1) Reform UK 7% (+1) Green 6% (+2) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Other 1% (–)

Changes +/- 11 June

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that_ginger_one 5 points 3 years ago

Flavible:

Party	Pred %	Pred Seats
CON	26.0%	149
LAB	46.0%	398
LD	12.0%	46
REFUK	7.0%	0
Green	6.0%	1
SNP	3%	32
PC	0.5%	3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	44.7%	375	26.0%	0	270	-270	105
LAB	33.0%	198	46.0%	271	0	+271	469
LIB	11.8%	8	12%	8	0	+14	22
Reform	2.1%	0	7%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.8%	1	6%	0	0	+0	1
SNP	4.0%	48	3.7%	0	15	-15	33
PlaidC	0.5%	2	0.4%	1	1	+0	2
Other	1.1%	0	0.1%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire	-	18	-	0	0	+0	18

EC is hard without seperate Scotland figures, 3% is lower than it automatically give them. and the poll numbers rounded add up to 100.5 so even more screwy

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