Leebra
login register
that_ginger_one
28
35
that_ginger_one

@feddit.uk

that_ginger_one 32 points 3 years ago

Never felt like 55% though....

context

save

path: 0 2029241 2030255, hotness: undefined, score: 32, children: 3
that_ginger_one 11 points 3 years ago

AFAIK that's one half of the story, but the other is something quite technical and cool in zoology that wasn't foreseen by ecologists at the time wolves were eradicated.

The wolves being removed caused something called meso-predator release, whereby the coyote numbers in the Yellowstone surged because of the cross over in prey species and lack of competition for that prey. BUT, that meant species not shared with wolves had their numbers heavily reduced by the increase in coyotes, mainly beavers.

When beaver numbers plummeted so did dams along the Yellowstone, and the the water level of the river went down and I think sped up, and that reduced areas for all animals and vegetative growth along the whole river. Reintroducing wolves caused coyote numbers to stabilise back at regular levels, beaver numbers did the same and the river stared to go back normal causing a huge bounce back across the board. Including reducing deer numbers back as coyotes don't hunt them so they did the opposite of beavers when wolves were removed for the same reason.... Meso-predator release but in the opposite direction.

context

save

path: 0 2321332 2340383, hotness: undefined, score: 11, children: 0
that_ginger_one 8 points 3 years ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 25.0% 132
LAB 48.0% 403
LD 10.0% 36
REFUK 5.0% 0
Green 5.0% 1
SNP 4% 53
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 25.0% 0 270 -311 64
LAB 33.0% 198 48.0% 297 0 +297 495
LIB 11.8% 8 10% 9 2 +7 15
Reform 2.1% 0 5% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 4.6% 6 0 +6 54
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
21% 26% 2% 0% 2% 47%
  • This one just feels wrong with the scotland numbers

PrincipleFish

  • Deltapoll give easy access to their regions breakdown so I also put this one through the principlefish election predictor:

context

save

path: 0 774780, hotness: undefined, score: 8, children: 5
that_ginger_one 6 points 3 years ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 27.0% 159
LAB 46.0% 380
LD 10.0% 32
REFUK 5.0% 0
Green 6.0% 1
SNP 4% 53*
PC 0.5% 3

*Big disbelief 🤨

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 27.0% 0 257 -257 118
LAB 33.0% 198 46.0% 263 0 +263 461
LIB 11.8% 8 10.0% 8 0 +8 16
Reform 2.1% 0 5.0% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 6.0% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 4.0% 0 15 -15 33
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.8% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 1.8% 1 0 +1 1*
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

*This is Claire Wright winning as an Independent in East Devon

context

save

path: 0 365990, hotness: undefined, score: 6, children: 3
that_ginger_one 5 points 3 years ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 27.0% 164
LAB 46.0% 391
LD 11.0% 37
REFUK 6.0% 0
Green 5.0% 1
SNP 3% 32
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 27.0% 0 270 -260 115
LAB 33.0% 198 46.0% 271 0 +271 469
LIB 11.8% 8 11% 9 0 +9 17
Reform 2.1% 0 7% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 5% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 3.5% 0 21 -21 27
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

context

save

path: 0 657465, hotness: undefined, score: 5, children: 3
that_ginger_one 5 points 3 years ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 26.0% 149
LAB 46.0% 398
LD 12.0% 46
REFUK 7.0% 0
Green 6.0% 1
SNP 3% 32
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 26.0% 0 270 -270 105
LAB 33.0% 198 46.0% 271 0 +271 469
LIB 11.8% 8 12% 8 0 +14 22
Reform 2.1% 0 7% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 6% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 3.7% 0 15 -15 33
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

EC is hard without seperate Scotland figures, 3% is lower than it automatically give them. and the poll numbers rounded add up to 100.5 so even more screwy

context

save

path: 0 366165, hotness: undefined, score: 5, children: 0
that_ginger_one 4 points 3 years ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 🌳 28.0% 199
LAB 🌹 43.0% 365
LD 🔶 9.0% 28
REFUK ➡️ 8.0% 0
Green 🌍 6.0% 1
SNP 🎗️ 3% 33
PC 💮 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 🌳 44.7% 375 28.0% 9 213 -204 172
LAB 🌹 33.0% 198 43.0% 233 0 +233 430
LIB 🔶 11.8% 8 9% 8 0 +8 16
Reform ➡️ 2.1% 0 8% 0 0 +0 0
Green 🌍 2.8% 1 6% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 🎗️ 4.0% 48 3.0% 0 38 -38 10
PlaidC 💮 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other ⬜️ 1.1% 0 2.5% 1 0 +1 1
N.Ire ⬜️ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
28% 31% 3% 1% 3% 31%

Don't believe the Scots numbers for a second in this poll; and they are having a real impact on the EC seat numbers.

context

save

path: 0 997891, hotness: undefined, score: 4, children: 0
that_ginger_one 4 points 3 years ago

We need a 'Canada 1993'

context

save

path: 0 551062 552641 553160, hotness: undefined, score: 4, children: 1
that_ginger_one 4 points 3 years ago

I partly posted this because of how easy it was for Sangita to back him into a corner when he tried to do the ol' "I'm very busy and important on defence stuff so won't be at the vote" and he has just enough self awareness to take the hit and change his mind rather than do a Govey.

But also it shows the shitshow tory MPs still have to deal with in the background because their membership still love a bit of Boris and can't acept he isn't a (national)vote winner anymore; they don't want to defend the report, or they lose half their membership, but they defend Boris and....they lose the other half of the membership.

No wonder 10% of Tory MPs aren't standing next time around already, 18 months out form the actual election.

context

save

path: 0 323137 324812, hotness: undefined, score: 4, children: 0
that_ginger_one 4 points 3 years ago

Add to that that one of Sunak 5 promises was to halve inflation by the end of the year...

The gov and the BoE just don't have many leavers or controls over it but love to claim credit when all goes well.

They could help people with mortgages, but they aren't & won't, the longer it goes on the longer our mad system of 2 - 5 year fixed term mortgages run out the clock and people just can't pay because their rate goes from 1.5% to 6%; they move to interest only (trying to put off the problem), repossessions go up, selling up, renters get screwed as investment props go bad, housing crash (but not as low to actually be a correctionon of the inflated market) etc. etc. etc.

How long before we're playing 'Negative Equity' bingo?

context

save

path: 0 402677 406417, hotness: undefined, score: 4, children: 1
that_ginger_one 4 points 3 years ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
SNP 35.0% 18
LAB 32.0% 29
CON 21.0% 7
LD 7.0% 5
REFUK 2.0% 0
Green 2.0% 0

Turns out I'm an idiot and Flavible do let you select Scotland Only, different story from them and the others.

PrincipleFish & ElectionPolling.co.uk

context

save

path: 0 855581, hotness: undefined, score: 4, children: 2
that_ginger_one 3 points 3 years ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 26.0% 181
LAB 44.0% 402
LD 8.0% 28
REFUK 10.0% 0
Green 7.0% 1
SNP 2% 13
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 26.0% 6 234 -228 147
LAB 33.0% 198 44.0% 262 0 +262 460
LIB 11.8% 8 8% 6 2 +4 12
Reform 2.1% 0 10% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 7% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 2% 0 39 -39 9
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
19% 34% 1% 6% 12% 28%

1% for the Libs in Scotland is 100% sampling error, they had just 1 person in 126 in Scotland go for the Lib Dems, so major dose of salt...

context

save

path: 0 510081, hotness: undefined, score: 3, children: 0
that_ginger_one 3 points 3 years ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 28.0% 177
LAB 46.0% 380
LD 11.0% 35
REFUK 4.0% 0
Green 4.0% 1
SNP 3% 32
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 28.0% 1 236 -235 141
LAB 33.0% 198 46.0% 248 0 +248 445
LIB 11.8% 8 11% 9 0 +9 17
Reform 2.1% 0 4% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 4% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 3.5% 0 23 -23 25
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 3.0% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

The difference 28% Con vs 24-5% Con is quite something. Still puts Labour in or close to the 400 Club (again).

context

save

path: 0 886871, hotness: undefined, score: 3, children: 0
that_ginger_one 3 points 3 years ago

I think whats worse is, looking at and putting in the regional info from their data table, other than the Wales Green party numbers...this one actually feels right, loads of other polls the Scotland numbers have been all over the place, low numbers of people and odd % turning up, but this one doesn't have anything glaring out at me that's horrifically and clearly sampling error, even Flavible's more uniform and conservative model is absolutely brutal at these numbers, and these numbers are what, 1-2% up or down from the average over the last week or so.

This is BEFORE we have an election campaign and Purdah, we know Rishi isn't the greatest campaigner and he clearly doesn't like questions, PMQs or being questioned and that all thats going to happen to him for WEEKS during the election.

Dare we start to hope?

context

save

path: 0 1428746 1431138, hotness: undefined, score: 3, children: 5
that_ginger_one 3 points 3 years ago

Oh I don't dare underestimate the change in public opinions when it's election time and suddenly their vote is close and they have to think. I know it happened for Labour in 2017 and a bit in 2019, but it can happen either way.

Don't get me wrong, Labour could coast into a comfy majority the way things are looking atm.

And those poor Lib Dems, I do think they are being underestimated by the models, but it doesn't look amazing for them eh.

context

save

path: 0 1428746 1431138 1436956 1437210, hotness: undefined, score: 3, children: 2
that_ginger_one 3 points 3 years ago

Those poor LibDems though...

context

save

path: 0 937585 938098 939512, hotness: undefined, score: 3, children: 1
that_ginger_one 3 points 3 years ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 25.0% 120
LAB 47.0% 398
LD 13.0% 56
REFUK 2.1% 0
Green 8.0% 1
SNP 4% 50
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 25.0% 0 299 -299 76
LAB 33.0% 198 47.0% 298 0 +271 496
LIB 11.8% 8 12% 15 0 +15 23
Reform 2.1% 0 2.5% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 8% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 3.7% 0 15 -15 33
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 0.3% 0 0 +1 1
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Reform, SNP and Other is all over the place as Ipsos didn't give the numbers or NewStatesman has them paywalled, so each was auto assigned by the model.

context

save

path: 0 474676, hotness: undefined, score: 3, children: 8
that_ginger_one 2 points 3 years ago

It does depend on how much people just 'go labour' because thats the 'not tory' vote, and how many look at their constituency and see Lib Dems in second, Labour can't actually fight everywhere with ground game, and in many places they won't really want to mand Lib Dems can and will do.

I haven't played with the tactical voting bit of Electoral Calculus mostly because it is a nationwide value and the regions will differ so much in who they vote if they are voting 'not tory'. Wales and North go Labour far more just as a baseline, East, South and South-West go Lib Dem more but not in cities, London does Labour, Lib Dem and Green in different ratios depending on borough.

It's all a bit of a fun nightmare to try that's also a guess and there's no public tools (I know of) to try it even if you wanted to, which I kinda do; as any level of tactical voting hammers the Tories even more than these predictions and that's always fun to see.

context

save

path: 0 1428746 1431138 1436956 1437210 1437346 1445480, hotness: undefined, score: 2, children: 0
that_ginger_one 2 points 3 years ago

If you're interested:

context

save

path: 0 1505950 1506027, hotness: undefined, score: 2, children: 3
that_ginger_one 2 points 3 years ago

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON 24.0% 111
LAB 47.0% 409
LD 12.0% 52
REFUK 7.0% 0
Green 4.0% 1
SNP 4% 52
PC 0.5% 3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 375 24.0% 0 305 -305 70
LAB 33.0% 198 47.0% 305 0 +305 503
LIB 11.8% 8 12% 8 0 +14 22
Reform 2.1% 0 7% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 4% 0 0 +0 1
SNP 4.0% 48 3.7% 0 15 -15 33
PlaidC 0.5% 2 0.5% 1 1 +0 2
Other 1.1% 0 0.1% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

More evidence the floor is falling out for CON (again...for now)

context

save

path: 0 551062, hotness: undefined, score: 2, children: 4

thanks for using Leebra!

go to feed...