This is probably the correct prediction. Mercedes will (hopefully) get closer, especially in in the second half of the season.

It’s more of a battle between Mercedes and Aston Martin for 2nd until 2026.

Ferrari will keep Ferrari’ing so keep the popcorn close.

I don't see anyone getting close to them probably until 2026, when the engine regulation change comes in. Hope I'm wrong tbh, but you have to hand it to them they've done the best job with the rule changes.

when do the wind tunnel restrictions begin, very soon right?

that should give us an idea on how much progress other teams can make

I think we may see some closer battles next year with Mercedes and RB, more similarly to the 2020 season.

I saw a post a while back somewhere that said we should kick RB out for the season, give them their trophy’s and titles and they can go do what ever. Then we as fans can watch some good races this year without a predictable 1st/2nd. I think this is the way :P

It's a sesonal thing, some teams are more successful at applying new regs to their cars. If they're lucky, they'll have a very good driver or two to go along with them. I remember Ferrari's domination, Schumacher would win just about every race. He was often MILES ahead of everyone. It remember what a snooze fest it was. F1 doesn't have the same competitiveness as Indy Car or Formula 2, it's in its own universe. I'm a Redbull fan, although I expect Max to win every single race from now on, I actually enjoy watching everyone else fighting for the second and third podium. Really want Alonso and Lewis to get more podium finishes, Tsunoda to score more points, Ferrari to sort out their shit and hoping Lando signing to a better team. F1 plays with your heart like no other motorsport.

It's the same thing as with mercedes domination, and red bull domination before that. They've found a solution to the rules that works really well and they have improvements that they are finding, although they're going to hit the incremental returns wall sooner. I don't know if they're going to be properly caught by 2025, don't forget that mercedes weren't caught by 2016, which was a year before the new wider cars were introduced, you had to wait until 2021 and a chassis freeze + nerf for that to happen.

Mercedes has obviously had to go back to the drawing board and hopefully understand their car better now so should be able to get closer next year. Aston could stay in the top spots which will be good. Ferrari have way too many resources to be kept down for long, but obviously their internal culture seems to need a rework, and I wouldn't put them in a championship hunt as they are now.

We'll see what the new engine regs have in store but it's not a massive change in some ways so it might not affect much unless someone completely shits the bed.

God I hope I'm wrong but I think 2026 new regs will be what changes it to a newly dominant team.

With that said Merc or Aston might get close and I do think that we'll get other race winners outside redbull sooner than that.

They did the best job with the resources; they won't be caught arguably until 2nd half of 2024 in my honest opinion.

I think that if Adrian Newey decides to reduce his level of involvement (as he did when he was working on the America's Cup and the Aston Martin Valkyrie), then we might see Mercedes regain dominance.

I'm a pretty new fan of F1 so I've only seen Merc and Red Bull dominate, but at this point I wouldn't be surprised if they maintain the lead till the next rule change. I know people will get pretty sick of it tho, including my self so I'd love to see some underdogs rise up.

I think that as we progress through this cost cap era, we may see the a "widening" per se of how teams are allocated resources as a part of the "Negative Feed Back Loop" system. While I am a RB fan and stoked to see the team I root for doing well, I don't enjoy dominance and find it leads to poor entertainment value.