businessinsider.com Iranian official taunts the Fed over high oil prices Alex Nicoll 7–9 minutes Iran's parliamentary speaker is taunting the Fed for its inability to bring down oil prices

By Alex Nicoll

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Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Parliament of Iran. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Parliament of Iran. Qassem al-KAABI / AFP via Getty Images

The speaker of Iran's parliament is trolling the US on social media about the Fed's inability to keep a lid on one of the biggest inputs for inflation: oil prices.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's Speaker of Parliament, spent the summer on social media taunting President Donald Trump over the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained partially closed throughout the war despite the administration's periodic claims that energy flows have resumed.

Just hours before the US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announced an interest rate hike for the first time since 2023, Ghalibaf posted a joke to X only a "Bloomberg Terminal Bro" could understand.

The post defined the "Straits Taylor Rule," a satirical rewriting of the rule central banks use to set monetary policy and fight inflation. The Taylor rule, described by economist John B. Taylor in 1993, helps calculate what a central bank's interest rate should be to keep inflation at an optimal level.

Straits Taylor Rule:

i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*) + α(SOH−SOH*) + β(BEM−BEM*), α,β > 0

Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel :)

You can’t 25bp a chokepoint and r* isn’t neutral. It’s SOH risk premium, and We set it.

Stay unanchored !
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) September 16, 2026

Ghalibaf's rewriting of the rule adds two main factors: SOH and BEM. These reflect the impact of full or partial blockades by Iran and its Houthi allies in the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab el-Mandab.

Disruptions to the key waterways have sent oil surging. Diesel, the backbone of global logistics, has spiked to all-time highs in the US, threatening further inflation ahead.

That very threat of higher prices is what led to the Fed's decision to cut rates this week, with Warsh defying the wishes of President Trump, who appointed him to his position.

Ghalbaf writes that we will "see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel," adding that "you can't 25bp a chokepoint," aka raise rates by 0.25% and expect it to relieve the supply problems that are keeping oil prices high.

He went on to taunt that the cost of borrowing is being set not just via the Fed's policy rate rate, but by the blockade.

"It's SOH risk premium, and We set it," he wrote. Ghalibaf's underlying message of the post is that Iran, not the US's Federal Reserve, is now in control of oil prices and, as a result, inflation.

The post has attracted thousands of responses and reposts on X, including one from Arnaud Bertrand, a French entrepreneur who founded and sold a company to TripAdvisor.

"You can say what you want about Iran but they're definitely pretty unique in their communication: never seen a country threaten another with a math equation before," Bertrand said.

And while interest rates may yet be able to tamp down inflation, even Warsh was clear on Wednesday that oil prices are out of his hands.

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Alex Nicoll

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Alex is a reporter at Business Insider writing about how people, from billionaires to penny-pinchers, save, invest, and manage their money. He previously covered private credit and equity, real estate, and real estate technology for Business Insider.Recently, he's covered Steve Schwarzman's hidden family office, private capital's push into your retirement account, a massive Airbnb tax-break unlocked by President Trump, and the ex-McKinsey consultant connecting Zohran Mamdani to the business world. According to one Fortune 500 CEO, he's a "fringe reporter."Before joining Business Insider in 2019, he worked for Bridgewater Associates and Peloton. He is the interim vice-chair of the Insider Union.He welcomes any and all reachouts, prioritizes his source's safety, and has a long record of working with confidential sources to tell deeply reported, complicated stories. He loves to yap.Get in touch! Contact this reporter via encrypted messaging app Signal at @alexnicoll.01 using a non-work phone, email at anicoll@businessinsider.com or alexonicoll@protonmail.com, or Twitter DM at @nicollsanddimes.

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