Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev stated on October 11 that Russian forces on the battlefield and ballistic weapons are the only tools bringing Russia closer to victory in Ukraine.[13] Russian strikes killed over 150 civilians in the last week (between October 4 and 11), and Medvedev’s statement demonstrates how Russia sees victory in Ukraine through the lens of inflicting maximum damage to Ukraine’s strategic rear such that Ukraine will capitulate to Russia’s demands.[14] Russian officials’ claims regarding negotiations and elections come as Ukraine has significant momentum on the battlefield and are likely intended to fracture Western support for Ukraine, which has contributed to recent Ukrainian military successes.[15]

The Kremlin likely assesses that Russian forces will be able to regain lost momentum on the battlefield from recent Ukrainian counterattacks and continue the war if it can convince Western states to pull support from Ukraine. The temporary US suspension of intelligence sharing in March 2025 enabled Russian advances in Kursk Oblast, for example, and Moscow likely seeks a repeat shutoff of critical US intelligence sharing.[16] The Kremlin is therefore attempting to perpetuate the false narrative that Ukraine is the obstacle to peace, shifting Russia’s responsibility for undermining good faith negotiations to Ukraine, while insisting on its maximalist demands and refusing to compromise.[17]

Russia deliberately leverages Ukraine’s constitutional inability to hold elections due to Russia’s war to manipulate the negotiations process and protract the war. Russia can enable Ukraine to hold elections at any point by agreeing to a ceasefire that the United States and Ukraine have offered numerous times.

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