Note that the crossing time of 2028 means that we have already entered the 20-year period of the 1.5°C global warming level in 2019.

The same framework was applied to estimate the timing of the 2.0 °C threshold. Ensemble-mean crossing times are projected to occur in 2040.

These results indicate that the recent acceleration of global warming is associated primarily with intensified warming in East Asia–the North Pacific, mid-latitude Eurasia, and the South Atlantic–Antarctic regions. The physical mechanisms underlying these regional warming anomalies remain incompletely understood. In East Asia–the North Pacific region, the accelerated warming has been linked to reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions from East Asia and from international shipping as well as to cloud feedbacks in response to a warming North Pacific, and to a poleward shift of the North Pacific storm track.