Holy shit, finally someone else who gets what i’m saying!

I completely agree. Moore’s law is dead, photonic computing and graphene transistors (which i’ve heard are set to replace it) probably won’t be here for a while, i agree that tech has slowed down, and overall, things are not looking good.

I am very scared of the possibility of a long period of slow, incremental growth. But unfortunately, i think deep down i know it’s a very real possibility. The world of 2030 may look pretty much the same as today, with 2040 not looking much different than that.

I’m a former singularitarian,

I’m glad to see that a former singularitarian has seen the truth. While i wasn’t too deep into the Kurzweil Koolaid, i did at one point think that we were getting AGI in a matter of a couple decades. With the slowdown of computing progress, that clearly isn’t happening.

So when can we realistically expect this to be a thing?

I’ve heard this sort of thing 1000 times before, and so far it never materialises.

Even if it’s just zero degradation in the first 5 years, that still seems like a big deal.

Yep. This is yet more “AI will cure cancer” hype

Because there is no intelligence in it.

Yeah, thanks for saying this. Current AI has literally 0 intelligence whatsoever. It’s basically just pattern matching. People are getting all hyped up about these chatbots, when they are literally just pattern matching, glorified autocompletes.

How exactly are we supposed to replicate the human brain, when we barely understand it?

IMO, too far out for this discussion to matter. Our primitive chemical rockets are absolutely nowhere close to facilitating routine trips to the asteroid belt, and we probably won’t get the sort of rocket technology that would, for at least decades, so that’s around late 2040’s (very optimistically), to 2050s at the earliest / 2060s? Yeah, very far out.

I’ve noticed that a lot of the things debated about in futurist circles are either a very long time away, or probably beyond our lifetimes. It’s a shame.

This sounds like marketing hype.

Yeah, this is exactly my thoughts aswell. If AI truly had reasoning capabilities, it would be global front page news.

😳

I get what you’re trying to say, but making fire and understanding the human brain are not even remotely on the same level.