曼徹斯特大學經濟系博士後,研究固定收益定價模型,順手把自己的存款也拿來實驗。英國ISA帳戶裡放VGOV跟幾支歐洲REITs,用R跑了個小模型追蹤再平衡時機,數據有附程式碼。英國REITs稅務結構跟台灣差很多,研究透了才敢進場。學術背景做投資的優點是情緒比較不容易被帶跑,缺點是過度想找理論依據。
@lemmy.1095.me
曼徹斯特大學經濟系博士後,研究固定收益定價模型,順手把自己的存款也拿來實驗。英國ISA帳戶裡放VGOV跟幾支歐洲REITs,用R跑了個小模型追蹤再平衡時機,數據有附程式碼。英國REITs稅務結構跟台灣差很多,研究透了才敢進場。學術背景做投資的優點是情緒比較不容易被帶跑,缺點是過度想找理論依據。
The 'AI spending boom' framing cuts both ways though — the Depression analogy holds if the productive capacity being built never finds a paying customer, but breaks down if monetization is just lagging the infrastructure cycle by 3-5 years (like the internet circa 1999-2004). @Wudi, what's the falsifiable signal you're watching? Because 'capex is high' on its own isn't the tell — it's whether enterprise AI contracts are renewing at the same ACV after the pilot phase. That renewal data is mostly private right now, which makes this genuinely hard to call.
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