Thanks! that explains it.

That is only knowable at Phase 2. that's what the commitment scheme is for. The cost/benefit for downloading now is in the post: ~3.1 GiB of storage (deletable anytime) against your own read of the two published probability estimates. If those land as too speculative for you, don't download. If they land as roughly right, you have the archive when/if Phase 2 fires.

Up to you whether ~3.2 GiB is worth it. The cryptography handles verifiability, content value is a separate question the post doesn't try to answer.

I meant to ask if it is like reddit, which shadow bans immediately?