Really though, I have no idea, but a "return to the policies of the Four" seems like the least likely outcome. Looking at the politburo it's hard to make a guess. Maybe Li Qiang, but it depends on how he does. I'd want to say Wang Huning, but I don't think he'd want to be in the public eye like that.

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ComradeSalad 22 points 3 years ago

Chen would conquer the world over the course of a week maximum. He would melt all twitter, Facebook, and reddit user's brains till the western population is a paltry shadow of its former self.

But thank you for the insight! I was also thinking Li Qiang, as he seems to be in the most applicable position to take Xi's place, and he has been making strong moves, and in turn drawing attention in the public and international eye. I was unsure due to his age, and overall policies which he hasn't brought to the forefront very much.

I'm very iffy on Wang though, he seems to be much more comfortable and applicable as a political theorist, "commissar" and bureaucrat, so I'm very unsure he'd even want a position like Premier, or do very well as one. Much more a writer then a leader.

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ReformOrDDRevolution 12 points 3 years ago

Yeah I agree about Wang, he's been high up in government so long but doesn't face the public in any way that I've seen. He's also just a few years younger than Xi. I was hoping there would be some younger members appointed in the last politburo to give a gesture as to where things may be heading once this generation is out.

I'm curious to see how he does, but tbh I hope it isn't Li Qiang.

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ComradeSalad 10 points 3 years ago

Is there a particular reason you say that for Qiang? I haven't seen much about him that isn't extremely neutral reporting, so I'm just wondering if there's something I'm missing.

Also while it is a prestigious position, it seems like it is high time to appoint people to the politburo who are in the 30-50 range. The current leadership is quickly aging, and they need to begin setting up, preparing, and training a new generation. A power vacuum would be disastrous, and appointing people in their late 50's early 60's is just postponing the issue by a few years.

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ReformOrDDRevolution 14 points 3 years ago

His proximity to capitalists doesn't inspire much confidence in me, and Shanghai is a liberal mecca.

I'm not the most knowledgeable about Li (or the inner workings of the CPC), so I could be quite off base as to what he would do. The western press was pretty happy as they see him as someone to give capital more free reign (even if they then try to deride him as a Xi "loyalist"). Though I think they said the same about Xi at some point lol.

Iirc there was some hukou reform under Li in Shanghai, which is good and I hope to see it go further.

Regardless, I think Xi has done enough to set China on a specific path that will likely not be altered beyond recognition depending on who is next, nor would a less influential leader necessarily lead to a power vacuum. It will be interesting to see what happens next though.

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CompadredeOgum 2 points 3 years ago

Li Qiang

is he the right wing guy?

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ComradeSalad 5 points 3 years ago

More liberal and more of a warhawk, but I wouldn’t say he’s overtly reactionary from what I’ve seen. He is your typical “free market, no government interference”. He wants to ease regulations, and has friends in high places like international investment bankers, billionaires like Jack Ma, the Apple and bridgewater CEO’s, and foreign organizations.

He’s a potentially dangerous figure, but he’s also extremely enigmatic with his policies and beliefs, so it’s hard to pin down exactly what his end goals are, or what a lot of his beliefs are.

I do not have a good feeling about him, he seems to be everything that liberals say Xi is. Which is nothing good.

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DBVegas 4 points 3 years ago

Yeah that doesn't sound too encouraging, encouraging the bourgeoisie and not holding billionaires to task like Xi has for when they step out of line is counterrevolutionary.

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iridaniotter 16 points 3 years ago

Yeah I'm really not sure. Everyone in the Standing Committee of the Politburo are 60 or older, and Xi has close to five (maybe even ten??) years left.

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ComradeSalad 20 points 3 years ago

I feel like 75-80 is pushing it significantly. Realistically the maximum is probably going to be within 2-5, as Xi is still subject to human aging and mental deterioration, and neither he nor the politburo would want a Trump/Biden situation with a decrepit leader.

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Life2Space 15 points 3 years ago

This term is probably Xi's last one.

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qwename 16 points 3 years ago

(Repost due to comments disappearing)

Xi isn’t the first General Secretary (总书记) of the CCCPC (Central Committee of the CPC, 中共中央委员会) to serve a third term, Jiang served 13 years from 19892002 for 3 terms, and Xi is only in his 11th year since Oct 2022. Deng was General Secretary for 10 years in 19561966 (this was just 1 term), back when the Central Committee still had a President position.

In short, serving 10 years for 2 terms as a General Secretary was never the norm, only Hu Jintao fits this description. As for the President of the PRC (中华人民共和国主席), Mao (19491959, and technically only 19541959 counts, he was President of the PRC People’s Government in 19491954, but we’ll let that slide), Jiang (19932003) and Hu (2003~2013) served 10 years for 2 terms, hardly a tradition/norm. Xi is indeed serving an unprecedented third term as President of the PRC, after limits were removed in 2018’s amendment to the constitution.

Now for the various scenarios in 2027:

Xi continues serving from 2027~2032 (5 years), not unthinkable.
New leader in 2027~2032, and depending on the merits of the term, will continue serving until 2037/2042.

If scenario 2 occurs, the candidates to look at are:

Current 7 members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 20th CCCPC. (中央政治局常委)
Current 24 members of the Political Bureau of the 20th CCCPC. (中央政治局委员)
Current 205 members of the 20th CCCPC. (中央委员)
Current 171 alternate members of the 20th CCCPC. (中央候补委员)

Link (in Chinese) to all the 205+171 candidates mentioned above, good luck finding the next leader!

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CompadredeOgum 5 points 3 years ago

what are those alternate members? like, what do they do?

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qwename 10 points 3 years ago

From Article 22 of the Constitution of the CPC:

Empty seats on the Central Committee shall be filled by alternate members in order of the number of votes they were elected by.

Empty seats usually appear when members are expelled from the Party due to violations, less often when they pass away during the term.

In the published list of alternate members, the names are listed in descending order by votes received, as opposed to the list of official members which list names by the number of strokes in their surnames. This is an important difference as you actually get to see the ranking by votes. (Tidbit: Xi was listed last out of 151 alternate members of the 15th CCCPC in 1997)

There are also alternate members for other levels of Party committee, not just the Central Committee.

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qwename 11 points 3 years ago

Xi isn't the first General Secretary (总书记) of the CCCPC (Central Committee of the CPC, 中共中央委员会) to serve a third term, Jiang served 13 years from 19892002 for 3 terms, and Xi is only in his 11th year since Oct 2022. Deng was General Secretary for 10 years in 19561966 (this was just 1 term), back when the Central Committee still had a President position.

In short, serving 10 years for 2 terms as a General Secretary was never the norm, only Hu Jintao fits this description. As for the President of the PRC (中华人民共和国主席), Mao (19491959, and technically only 19541959 counts, he was President of the PRC People's Government in 19491954, but we'll let that slide), Jiang (19932003) and Hu (2003~2013) served 10 years for 2 terms, hardly a tradition/norm. Xi is indeed serving an unprecedented third term as President of the PRC, after limits were removed in 2018's amendment to the constitution.

Now for the various scenarios in 2027:

Xi continues serving from 2027~2032 (5 years), not unthinkable.
New leader in 2027~2032, and depending on the merits of the term, will continue serving until 2037/2042.

If scenario 2 occurs, the candidates to look at are:

Current 7 members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 20th CCCPC. (中央政治局常委)
Current 24 members of the Political Bureau of the 20th CCCPC. (中央政治局委员)
Current 205 members of the 20th CCCPC. (中央委员)
Current 171 alternate members of the 20th CCCPC. (中央候补委员)

Link (in Chinese) to all the 205+171 candidates mentioned above, good luck finding the next leader!

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SleepyCat 8 points 3 years ago

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Leninismydad 7 points 3 years ago

Im sure there are plans, but idk them and its hard to know who could or will, many names that are potential.

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Life2Space 5 points 3 years ago

Whatever happens, I hope that the situation in the USSR where there was no clear, competent successor to Stalin does not occur.

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Rasm635u 5 points 3 years ago

I have no idea

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quality_fun 4 points 3 years ago

whoever it is, they must be competent and continue developing china or all of the efforts of the past decades could be lost.

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