GDP Growth in Second Quarter Slows to 1.5%, No Evidence of AI Productivity Boom

2 months ago by supersquirrel to c/techtakes

^a succint highly professional description of the US economy right now as it is monomaniacally leveraged into AI.

reference video

https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=i-XhMFGH7vg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-XhMFGH7vg

JustDory 10 points 2 months ago

"If we fire all the people, and replace them with AI, we will definitely increase both productivity and earnings"

"Not tested in production? Well I've been testing it and sure it's sure as hell been producing!"

"Shit, I guess this isn't working, let's just hire them back"

"...what do you mean they don't want to come back?"

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gerikson 7 points 2 months ago

here's some nerd who calculates that GenAI gives a senior dev a 15% productivity increase, and a junior 25%

https://bjorg.bjornroche.com/...

HN correctly calls his numbers bullshit, especially because the time spend reviewing code is unchanged between pre- and post-AI:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49152222

Even if his numbers are correct, it essentially means that software companies are around 10% faster in delivering something, however that something might be even more bug-ridden and slow than before.

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diz 5 points 2 months ago

I think even if development at an instant is some % faster to start with, it writes the same functionality in more lines of code which will rapidly lead to a cumulative slowdown.

Imagine you are traveling the oregon trail in a wagon and a devil offers you an extra horse but all of its manure has to go into the wagon. Initial speed up followed by a cumulative slowdown. If you keep accepting devil’s deals as your wagon keeps slowing down to a crawl, the progression is governed by a horseshit version of Tsiolkovsky’s equation.

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fullsquare 3 points 2 months ago

Even then that's extremely charitably assuming that this hypothetical productivity gain is put to good use, with ai-pilled management that's just adding bloat 10% faster with a side of mindless tech debt

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lurker 5 points 2 months ago

But a guy who worked with Elon Musk said 100x productivity soon…

anyways lmfaooo suck it ai bros

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supersquirrel 3 points 2 months ago

wow ok my bad, here is 10 million for your AI startup and DON'T GO ALL "DETAILS" ON ME

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lurker 3 points 2 months ago