The AI Bubble Warning Just Came From Europe’s Central Bank

a day ago by CAVOK to c/europe

ECB researchers warn AI stocks face a likely correction, putting pension and index fund holders at risk — regardless of whether AI succeeds.
87Six 35 points a day ago

If you're worried about this... I'd say be wary of your situation. Have enough accessible cash for 6 months to a year of okay living. And if it does dip a lot, buy into it with some of that money.

And don't sell. The only time you should sell is when you're approaching the time you need to take everything out, like if you're approavhing a house purchase, old age or such.

And good luck

path: 0 25372621, hotness: undefined, score: 35, children: 9
snoons 40 points 21 hours ago

Oh dang, I only have enough cash for zero months. ...where'd I put those bootstraps...

path: 0 25372621 25373349, hotness: undefined, score: 40, children: 7
87Six 15 points 21 hours ago

Look man... I'm sorry...

I don't know what to tell you. It's terrible being so tight on money. I don't have advice to give on that, because all I did was get lucky to not be working minimum wage...

But I have some semi-informed advice to give about keeping money safe and wanted to share...

path: 0 25372621 25373349 25373405, hotness: undefined, score: 15, children: 2
snoons 14 points 21 hours ago

Oh, I didn't mean anything by it lol. Soz.

path: 0 25372621 25373349 25373405 25373545, hotness: undefined, score: 14, children: 1
87Six 7 points 19 hours ago

<3

path: 0 25372621 25373349 25373405 25373545 25374770, hotness: undefined, score: 7, children: 0
paulcdb 6 points 20 hours ago

Think of it like this, no money = nothing to lose!

There’s plenty of sources claiming how people like Elon have so much money in loans, when the crash comes the banks will quickly move to recover those debts.

On top of that, all you see are rich people telling others the way to get rich is getting loans upon loans. Well when the crash comes and again, you can no longer repay the loans, it’s going to hit hard! So much money is tied up in pretend money on gains that don’t exist!

Right now having no money is probably safer, my plan is getting out of debt as much as possible, as quick as possible. Hell, if it hits hard enough people might end up going back to trading goods for goods! 😂

path: 0 25372621 25373349 25374150, hotness: undefined, score: 6, children: 2
bufalo1973 3 points 18 hours ago

Can you imagine if someway all the debts in the world were balanced? That if A owes something to B and B owes something to C and C owes something to A the debt becomes the difference? And this on a world level.

path: 0 25372621 25373349 25374150 25375009, hotness: undefined, score: 3, children: 0
87Six 2 points 18 hours ago

Well when the crash comes and again, you can no longer repay the loans

Well, is that the case? Afaik when they loan with a stocks amount as collateral, the X units of stock are the collateral, not the Y value of stock.

They just set aside more collateral value than the loan is worth. Say if you loan 1k the collatelar assigned will probably be 2-3k.

If the stock holding value gets dangerously low, the lender can liquidate your stock I think

But, EVEN THEN, the NET worth of say, Musk, doesn't change too much in that case. Because net worth already has all debts subtracted from it.

It would change in the value equal to the difference between the loan value and the liquidated collateral value I guess, but I don't imagine that would be very large? This part I'm unsure about.

So even in the end I don't think they lose too much...

path: 0 25372621 25373349 25374150 25375668, hotness: undefined, score: 2, children: 0
HieroProtagonist 5 points 18 hours ago

Breath and talk to myself "No, you will NOT make some highly inappropriate joke about zero money, bootstraps and necks..." breath

path: 0 25372621 25373349 25375406, hotness: undefined, score: 5, children: 0
Ibuthyr 2 points 40 minutes ago

Lol, or just move to a country that isn't trash and provides some social security.

path: 0 25372621 25388764, hotness: undefined, score: 2, children: 0
DmMacniel 19 points a day ago

Economy crash speedrun let's goooo!

path: 0 25372805, hotness: undefined, score: 19, children: 6
CAVOK 11 points 21 hours ago

Let's not. It's pretty much never been good, historically speaking.

path: 0 25372805 25373437, hotness: undefined, score: 11, children: 5
DmMacniel 9 points 20 hours ago

The AI Bros won't care, and they will never learn, repeat those economy crisis. So just pop it before it affects everyone everywhere.

path: 0 25372805 25373437 25373898, hotness: undefined, score: 9, children: 0
ivan 5 points 20 hours ago

If there’s one positive thing to it, it’s how worker cooperatives were formed in most cases.

Business goes bust or big bosses decide specific location doesn’t bring enough value for shareholders - workers chip in and buy facility out. At least how it worked in, for example, Argentina.

path: 0 25372805 25373437 25373918, hotness: undefined, score: 5, children: 1
sukhmel 3 points 18 hours ago

I kinda feel Argentina is a bit different to Europe in that their economy was in a very bad shape, in Europe I would expect some Chinese enterprise buying the factory, leaving workers with pretty much nothing

path: 0 25372805 25373437 25373918 25375740, hotness: undefined, score: 3, children: 0
deadcream 3 points 19 hours ago

But what about our glorious revolution?

path: 0 25372805 25373437 25374677, hotness: undefined, score: 3, children: 1
Quittenbrot 2 points 17 hours ago

Which one? The only revolution currently showing widespread successes is the one from the far right.

I wouldn't call that either "our" nor "glorious".

path: 0 25372805 25373437 25374677 25376432, hotness: undefined, score: 2, children: 0
nfms 16 points a day ago

I think I'll be ok. I don't make enough money to invest on funds.

path: 0 25372551, hotness: undefined, score: 16, children: 0
RedstoneValley 15 points 19 hours ago

The mechanism is almost elegant in how it works against you

Yeah, this or plain fraud. Bending the rules to be included early in index funds like the spaceX case or not enforcing the rules in case of Tesla/S&P500 is what allows fraud to happen. Circular investments pumping up the numbers too. But let's just pretend everything is fine until it's too late

path: 0 25374580, hotness: undefined, score: 15, children: 2
architect 3 points 16 hours ago

Chatgpt wrote this article.

path: 0 25374580 25376751, hotness: undefined, score: 3, children: 1
RedstoneValley 1 point an hour ago

Damn, you're right. I fell for it this time.

path: 0 25374580 25376751 25388706, hotness: undefined, score: 1, children: 0
A_norny_mousse 12 points 20 hours ago

Funnily, the article author is called Al.

Seriously:

The ECB’s warning isn’t aimed at Wall Street traders — it’s aimed at anyone whose pension or index fund quietly loaded up on AI stocks.

Didn't know this was a thing in Europe, too.

path: 0 25373976, hotness: undefined, score: 12, children: 2
spechter 5 points 19 hours ago

Could already qualify if you have a very broad ETF which is 20% Bubble NVIDIA.

path: 0 25373976 25374316, hotness: undefined, score: 5, children: 0
huppakee 5 points 19 hours ago

The pension system is different, in general in the us you have your own fund and in Europe you pay to an institute like you do with insurance. Some pension funds are ginormous and manage the pensions of millions of people.

path: 0 25373976 25374931, hotness: undefined, score: 5, children: 0
HieroProtagonist 10 points a day ago

I think one has to look at the danger of a bursting AI bubble with the crisis=opportunity mindset: If the bubble pops there will be THE opportunity to buy and profit when the market moves up again... yeah, it will perhaps not go back up to the all time high but there is a healthy profit to make.

path: 0 25372822, hotness: undefined, score: 10, children: 14
lokalhorst 10 points a day ago

If you are already invested, than you do not have spare money to buy a dip. If you do have spare money, your investment strategy is questionable.

2 rules everybody should know:

  • Timing in the market beats timing the market
  • The best day to invest was yesterday, the second best is today
path: 0 25372822 25372856, hotness: undefined, score: 10, children: 13
the_strange 14 points a day ago

Someone made a game out of this:
https://beatthecouch.com/

You're trying to beat the couch by supposedly in an informed way selling and buying from the S&P500. The couch just holds its money in the S&P500 and does nothing. Only about 10% of players outperform the couch.

It's made with real data from the last ~ 100 years but only shows you the trend of the price, not the years.

path: 0 25372822 25372856 25372920, hotness: undefined, score: 14, children: 2
Tar_alcaran 5 points 20 hours ago

Beating the market is easy though, you just need some insider information.

path: 0 25372822 25372856 25372920 25374158, hotness: undefined, score: 5, children: 0
87Six 4 points 21 hours ago

That's brilliant, I have to play it

path: 0 25372822 25372856 25372920 25373416, hotness: undefined, score: 4, children: 0
HieroProtagonist 5 points 21 hours ago

My investment strategy over the last two decades was to buy something when its down, forget about it (and so don't get frustrated when it sunk even deeper after buying), stumble over the investment > 5 years later and be happy about the accumulated money. Surprisingly it worked quiet well so far...

path: 0 25372822 25372856 25373385, hotness: undefined, score: 5, children: 0
666dollarfootlong 2 points 19 hours ago

I invest a few tens of euros a month, and I actively try to buy low. So far I've managed to buy quite a few dips, and in ~15 months i've gained 14.84%. The total sum of money i've invested is not much, but it has been consistent

path: 0 25372822 25372856 25374514, hotness: undefined, score: 2, children: 4
lokalhorst 2 points 18 hours ago

The MSCI World made 28.49 in the last 15 months

path: 0 25372822 25372856 25374514 25375660, hotness: undefined, score: 2, children: 3
mhi 4 points 17 hours ago

If you invested 100% of the money 15 months ago, not when you invested every month for 15 months.

path: 0 25372822 25372856 25374514 25375660 25376112, hotness: undefined, score: 4, children: 1
666dollarfootlong 1 point 16 hours ago

I don't want to invest in a global fund, I invest based on my own values

path: 0 25372822 25372856 25374514 25375660 25376713, hotness: undefined, score: 1, children: 0
Don_alForno 1 point 14 hours ago

If you do have spare money, your investment strategy is questionable.

Huh? You invest x% of your income each month. You don't have next month's money today, so nothing questionable about it.

If the market crashes, you keep buying each month, so you profit when it goes back up.

path: 0 25372822 25372856 25379514, hotness: undefined, score: 1, children: 3
lokalhorst 1 point 13 hours ago

Sorry I don't really understand. Isn't that what I am saying?

path: 0 25372822 25372856 25379514 25379663, hotness: undefined, score: 1, children: 2
Don_alForno 1 point 13 hours ago

It's not. Your initial paragraph only makes sense if everything happens in the same point in time. When this bubble bursts it will start a market crash that spans multiple years, not a one time thing that you have to buy into today or miss it.

path: 0 25372822 25372856 25379514 25379663 25380114, hotness: undefined, score: 1, children: 1
cypherpunks 7 points 20 hours ago

screenshot of text: "Euro-area households hold approximately €440 billion in exposure to the Magnificent Seven — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla". the "€440 billion in exposure" and "Microsoft, Amazon" parts are purple underlined hyperlinks

Zach Galifianakis Math gif

path: 0 25373785, hotness: undefined, score: 7, children: 3
khannie 4 points 20 hours ago

That's like a grand a head, give or take. Mental.

path: 0 25373785 25374177, hotness: undefined, score: 4, children: 0
ParlimentOfDoom 3 points 15 hours ago

Magnificent 7

8 companies

Genius.

path: 0 25373785 25378305, hotness: undefined, score: 3, children: 1
Tango 1 point 9 hours ago

It accidentally listed Amazon twice. The list would otherwise be alphabetical.

path: 0 25373785 25378305 25383863, hotness: undefined, score: 1, children: 0
europe
europe

@feddit.org

login for more options
11836
11382
5243

News and information from Europe 🇪🇺

(Current banner: La Mancha, Spain. Feel free to post submissions for banner images.)

Rules (2024-08-30)

  1. This is an English-language community. Comments should be in English. Posts can link to non-English news sources when providing a full-text translation in the post description. Automated translations are fine, as long as they don't overly distort the content.
  2. No links to misinformation or commercial advertising. When you post outdated/historic articles, add the year of publication to the post title. Infographics must include a source and a year of creation; if possible, also provide a link to the source.
  3. Be kind to each other, and argue in good faith. Don't post direct insults nor disrespectful and condescending comments. Don't troll nor incite hatred. Don't look for novel argumentation strategies at Wikipedia's List of fallacies.
  4. No bigotry, sexism, racism, antisemitism, islamophobia, dehumanization of minorities, or glorification of National Socialism. We follow German law; don't question the statehood of Israel.
  5. Be the signal, not the noise: Strive to post insightful comments. Add "/s" when you're being sarcastic (and don't use it to break rule no. 3).
  6. If you link to paywalled information, please provide also a link to a freely available archived version. Alternatively, try to find a different source.
  7. Light-hearted content, memes, and posts about your European everyday belong in other communities.
  8. Don't evade bans. If we notice ban evasion, that will result in a permanent ban for all the accounts we can associate with you.
  9. No posts linking to speculative reporting about ongoing events with unclear backgrounds. Please wait at least 12 hours. (E.g., do not post breathless reporting on an ongoing terror attack.)
  10. Always provide context with posts: Don't post uncontextualized images or videos, and don't start discussions without giving some context first.

(This list may get expanded as necessary.)

Posts that link to the following sources will be removed

  • on any topic: Al Mayadeen, brusselssignal:eu, citjourno:com, europesays:com, Breitbart, Daily Caller, Fox, GB News, geo-trends:eu, news-pravda:com, OAN, RT, sociable:co, any AI slop sites (when in doubt please look for a credible imprint/about page), change:org (for privacy reasons), archive:is,ph,today (their JS DDoS websites)
  • on Middle-East topics: Al Jazeera
  • on Hungary: Euronews

Unless they're the only sources, please also avoid The Sun, Daily Mail, any "thinktank" type organization, and non-Lemmy social media (incl. Substack). Don't link to Twitter directly, instead use xcancel.com. For Reddit, use old:reddit:com

(Lists may get expanded as necessary.)

Ban lengths, etc.

We will use some leeway to decide whether to remove a comment.

If need be, there are also bans: 3 days for lighter offenses, 7 or 14 days for bigger offenses, and permanent bans for people who don't show any willingness to participate productively. If we think the ban reason is obvious, we may not specifically write to you.

If you want to protest a removal or ban, feel free to write privately to the admin that applied the rule (check modlog first to find who was it.)

go to feed...