Extreme El Niños are coming. Reaching net zero sooner means facing fewer of them

2 days ago by Beep to c/climate

The El Niño climate pattern has long influenced weather across the globe.
savvie 6 points 2 days ago

Scientists have always understood El Niño to be a phenomenon that temporarily alters global weather, with conditions returning to “normal” when it dissipates. However, climate change is expected to change what “normal” looks like.

As the planet warms, extreme El Niño years are likely to become more common. Our research suggests the tropical Pacific could remain in an El Niño-like state for centuries – even if the world reaches net zero carbon emissions – and extreme El Niño years would occur more often.

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gravitas_deficiency 2 points 2 days ago

Ope - I guess we’re fucked 🙃

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Jax 3 points 2 days ago

No, we aren't - but we're in for a hell of a ride.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

Anti-science, inactivism, and unsupported conspiracy theories are not ok here.

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