The title is a bit misleading, as the article lists diverging analysts’ opinions, ranging from Valve willing to sell at a loss or low margins, to high prices due to RAM and SSD price volatility.
cross-posted from: https://lemmy.blackeco.com/post/2330473
While I think you’re ultimately right, 6 years ago I would have said the same thing about the Steam Deck idea, so I’m compelled to offer counterpoints.
Valve, very uniquely, does offer the best Linux-based digital games storefront to use on that Linux gaming PC you bought. So, they’re very much positioned to take advantage of the hardware purchase. Users aren’t “locked in”, but they are compelled in, and users may have a smoother time getting games on Steam than trying to set up controller-based launchers on Heroic or something.
It’s like when the pet isn’t literally fenced into the house, and is allowed to roam free, but is reminded that its fluffy toy and warm meals are all back at home, so it’ll never go far.
Valve also might just be more forward-thinking than most game companies most COMPANIES these days. They build goodwill this way and get people obsessed with their brand by having more wins like this.
Steam deck has customization you can buy with their points, I could see them getting some extra game sales that way
Hah, this is where they get you and I’ve been dogpiled for raising this as an issue continuously. This is an illusion of an open system. Where are you going to buy games for Steam Machine? Steam obviously, there’s no competition. Then as your library grows you get more and more vendor locked. Then Valve does an Android application notarising switcheroo and you have Linux machine that’s no different from a Mac or an Android phone. Of course they can subsidise it because they can recoup it thanks to 30% cut and it’ll only accelerate the process.
GoG, epic, any other store really. Proton is made by valve but it works in whatever, and there are tools now to use proton (not wine, proton) outside of steam to get all the goodies you got on top. Heroic launcher does that for the games you get from the Amazon store, gog, epic, and any other exe you got.
I even installed battle net, and once you open it everything you install from there works in that bubble and work, I played plenty HOTS games.
I play modded D2 without much issues.
You know why the steam market share in Linux is so high? Because they are the ones that put the work to make windows games work on Linux. Yes, wine existed before but they both adapted it for games and contributed to the overall wine project a ton. Also, iirc, steamdecks make up for 30% of the Linux machines from valve's yearly reports. The market is tremendously tiny yet.
The competition on...
Okay, so, it's an OS right?
So for free linux-native stuff, there's the default package manager that comes installed. Switch your steam deck to desktop mode. There's a lot there, including emulators that will run on steam deck from ancient Atari shit to Nintendo switch.
But you can also run non-steam executables with proton. Heroic, lutris, etc are great tools from that. You can buy your games anywhere without rootkit DRM. Most things from itch.io or gog.com will run. Or, you know; other places. You can just pirate shit.
You can in fact uninstall the stock OS and run anything you can compile for midrange x86 hardware.
This is an illusion of an open system.
Well that's certainly an...unusual position.
Steam obviously, there’s no competition.
There's definitely competition. Is the competition great? Not really. But you can still buy and install games from Epic, Itch and GOG and run them on Steam hardware. It's just not as convenient. There's not really anything they can do about that. I hope one day soon someone makes a better frontend that supports other platforms better, and if they do, you'll be able to install it on Steam hardware, because that's what an open system means.
Closed hardware looks Like PS5, XBOX and Switch. No browser. No desktop. No access to any files. No mods. No emulation. No third party stores AT ALL. And in fact if you try to do any of those things, they will remotely brick your device.
Then as your library grows you get more and more vendor locked.
Not sure how you get there...
hope one day soon someone makes a better frontend that supports other platforms better,
Heroic Games Launcher isn't that bad IMO. Though I haven't checked if it has something equivalent to big picture mode, which is kind of a necessity to compete with Steam on the Steam Machine. But on PC it's fine. I use it for my free Epic games lol
What you’re saying doesn’t contradict that on Steam Machine you’re going to buy games from Valve only so it doesn’t matter that you can, in theory, buy from somewhere else. The bigger your library grows, the less likely you are to start buying games in another ecosystem. Valve doesn’t care if you „jailbreak” with a web browser for now. They’re in for a long game and there was no better time than now because in the US they can get around tariffs by selling this console as a PC.
What you’re saying doesn’t contradict that on Steam Machine you’re going to buy games from Valve only so it doesn’t matter that you can, in theory, buy from somewhere else.
What you're saying is just false. This is not a theory. I've owned a "Steam machine" for several years and regularly acquire and play games from other stores. Whether you buy games from Valve is entirely up to you.
The bigger your library grows, the less likely you are to start buying games in another ecosystem.
No. That makes zero sense.
Valve doesn’t care if you „jailbreak”
There is no jailbreaking. There's nothing to break. The system already allows you to do whatever you want. Just go into the menu and select "exit to desktop".
they can get around tariffs by selling this console as a PC.
Why would you think PCs aren't impacted by tariffs?
Theoretically people could use it for a cheap non-gaming PC, except the cheapest non-gaming PC would be non-gaming specs.
Anyone using it for cheap crypto-mining is an idiot, the cheap option there is a rack full of bang-for-buck GPUs.
Are there any other use-cases that involve gaming-PC specs? Making videos, perhaps?
Could be good for some home automation workflows- plex server, transcribing security cam video, doing object detection on said video.
If it's priced well and idle power usage good, it can be a great home lab. Run all sorts of services on it. Host your own Google Drive/Docs/Photos alternatives with all the automated categorization like face detection sorting. Should be strong enough to run a lot of unrelated services off one machine. If I ever had gigabit internet, I'd probably try stuff like hosting a Matrix server. Self hosted RSS feed.
Would be great for videos. RDNA3.5 has good AV1 and HEVC encoder and decode I believe. I think h.264 got solid with RDNA3.5. Good for video usually means good for photos too. Probably audio. Blender support for AMD graphics cards continue to improve and game engines have generally always been good. Great for a computer lab to teach something like Godot
The compact media creation thing would be the big thing for me if I needed a computer and this was substantially cheaper than a Strix Halo minipc. Darktable, Kdenlive, Krita, Ardour, Godot, Blender. I'd have people in mind where a $500-600 just under an ~RX 7600 would be a huge upgrade for their personal art workstation and the compact form is a big plus
In this context, "generic mini-PC" doesn't need to even be "non-gaming-PC", just not a platform for buying Valve's games; a razor-and-blades model requires that you be the one selling the blades. If someone just goes and runs games purchased from GOG, that's already an issue for them.
It's why inkjet printer manufacturers, who do use this model, try to make it so stupendously difficult to use ink from competitors (outside of the bottled-ink printers, which don't use that model, where the manufacturers are fine with you doing that).
Seriously! Just started replaying cyberpunk on my base model deck and it is buttery smooth! Very impressive for an igpu!
Yes, but also consider you are running a more updated, optimized version of Cyberpunk than what everyone experienced when it first launched (and more optimized drivers/FSR/etc). So the true performance gains of mid-low range hardware is masked by the fact that the game is not so horribly unoptimized anymore.
In other words, the actual performance increase of hardware over the years is perceived to be higher than it actually is due to other factors.
But the existence of a steam machine would incentivize releasing games in this kind of optimized state.
You can’t optimize “for pc” because “pc” could mean any configuration of components. Obviously you can optimize, but you can’t “target”, you can’t say “we got it running at 60 fps stable on ‘’pc’.
You can “optimize” for a pre defined steam machine. You can say “we got it running at 60fps stable on the stock steam machine”
So the problem was the game, not the device...? The hardware was fine?
You know what's wild? I was a day one buyer on a $30 rebuilt PS4, and had almost no bugs my first 2 playthroughs.
Doubt they'll be that pricey. I think they're aiming for 600ish or thereabouts. I'm not the target audience (beefy gaming pc) but I love the concept and what it'll do to further indie gaming. It'll probably also pull people from consoles to pc gaming. Valve can't stop winning.
The problem is dram prices right now are crazy so the price might get pushed up quite a bit
Depends on whether they negotiated contract pricing beforehand. The price increases aren't because of manufacturing cost increases, they're because of high demand. Retail pricing isn't really related to bulk wholesale contract pricing at all.
I think they might eat the extra costs because they know they'll more than recuperate it from increased software sales. Hell, XboX as a console was a loss leader for MS for over a decade.
The issue is that if you sell the PC at a loss, you're effectively subsidzing every person and business who wants an SFF-PC but may not necessarily buy games for them. It's not like the Steam Deck where you can bet the majority of those devices are ending up in the hands of gamers.
I have an old old old gaming rig think 2 270s sli'd with a second Gen i7. I would totally buy this thing at $600. I'm so impressed with the steam deck, that I might actually try some vr if I have the spare change.
It's likely in everybody's best interest that this is a wild success. Not only will game developers be incentivized to actually optimize their games for reasonable setups; this will unseat Nvidia's monopoly over gamers with their ridiculously overpriced graphics cards and also Microsoft's monopoly of a gamer's operating system.
Nvidia's partnership with Palantir is incredibly concerning and any blow to Nvidia is a welcome one. Encourage these developments and hype this all up.
Holy crap I'd forgotten about that.
Yeah, nvidia needs to die. Nothing tied to palantir should survive.
Asus B360 Prime with 32GB RAM i5 9400F CPU 6700 XT GPU w/ 12GB VRAM
(all of that used)
... however, I originally bought it all for a virtual pinball build so I'm sure it could be done better with Bazzite in mind from the start.
I went with a white+birch Lian Li A3-mATX to get something barely good looking enough to fit with the rest of the gaming room.
Yeah, but the hardware in these machines is part custom and Valve buys in bulk to be able to sell at an affordable price. Remember: their main business is in selling games, but you need hardware to play those games
Some analysts think Great headline
"9 out of 10 dentists recommend..."
I don't think it would make sense for them to sell it at a loss. On the other hand, they don't have to make a huge profit from it either. I really hope it'll come down to a range of about €600. That would make it a no-brainer for me.
Right. I don't believe they're hurting for profits, and at the same time, having Linux and specifically Steam OS become much more widely adopted would greatly benefit them (for breaking out of the Microsoft jail they still find themselves partially in). Also, hardware is not their primary business. It seems that they could sell this to cover their costs and reap all the rewards from that besides immediate profit.
Benefits of being a non publicly traded company, they can actually take risks which they did with the deck. It performed way better than they expected, so while they might not sell it at a loss they will definitely be competitive. I mean considering development costs, it has an integrated on board but discreet GPU, so the r&d budget will be factored in. But I honestly don't see it >$700. Without knowing the exact chipset they're using that is. But memory is the big cost constraint right now thanks to ai.
Can get an 'aoostar GODY' on AliExpress for US$1000. Basically the same GPU, 16GB RAM, 512GB SSD. The steam machine has less cores and less ethernet. Though it also has a way bigger heatsink, LEDs and extra Bluetooth/valve gamepad antenna.
Comparing the deck to comparative brands, it is wayyy cheaper. I think valve are going to be aggressive on price, especially when the CPU/GPU are fairly old and meek.
The Steam Machine seems to be using the Nintendo model of using low cost off-the-shelf parts instead of expensive custom components.
Then again the Steam controller and VR headset seem kind of fancy.
Hopefully, they get very popular and manages to steal significant market share from Windows.
Yeah true the index headset wasn't a bargain compared to the quests that were clearly being sold as cheaply as possible.
And beyond the aggressive pricing, the one major benefit over other miniPC makers is the extensive support.
I have a Minisforum mini PC. Took Minisforum over a year to release BIOS updates that were finished in March 2024... and against all CS promises it still hasn't fixed the initial discrepancies (advertised as the only 8945HS mini PC that can go over 57W due to their improved cooling, and the only Ryzen 8000 series APU that can handle RAM at 5400-5600MT/s - still can't get power over 57W and even though I have compatible RAM, it refuses to clock over 4800MHz, and there's no option to configure it either).
Meanwhile Valve is still dropping improvements on the Steam Deck, 3.5 years after release.
For $1k I think this would be DOA.
Yeah, if it isn't like $600 USD or less, the thing is as toast as the previous generation of Steam Machines.
Yeah but this is what I mean. Valve buying in bulk would be able to offer a better deal than someone try to build their own…
Good guess. For reference, Xbox series X without optical drive is $600 currently. PS5 Pro without optical drive is $750 currently. The specs on Valve Machine seem more similar to PS5 Pro, I think.
The hardware is stronger than Xbox Series S but weaker than base PS5. It doesn't even get close to PS5 Pro. I recommend watching Digital Foundry video about it.
This article is pure sensationalism and speculation. The reason GabeCube's hardware is mid is because it was made with affordability in mind. It's supposed to be cheaper than if you would build a regular PC with similar specs. Expect something around $500-$600 price point.
...I might pick up the controller if it's not a hundred bucks.
The original steam controller was $50, I would hope they'd be able to keep it under $100.
Not to mention a steamdeck is $400, and that's got a lot more going on than just a controller.
I mean the original controller had gryo, track pads, USB dongle and Bluetooth, haptics, and buttons on the back.
However, I do agree the controller felt cheap (I think really just how light it was).
We'll have to see. I think they could pull it off as they've been more aggressive with pricing than other companies.
Ain't no way. I got my steam deck during the first sale for around $330. There is no way their controller based off it will cost about half of something that came with a screen, soc, and bigger battery.
Ps5 controller is like $70, the Steam Controller has more features than that, and the OG Steam Controller was pretty expensive. I’d be shocked if it’s under $100. I’m expecting it in the $150-$200 range. But we’ll see, I’d love to be proven wrong
Cool, let's have a gentleperson's bet. I'm going sub $100.
the OG Steam Controller was pretty expensive
Wasn't the OG steam controller $50 ?
The rumor is that the cpu in the steam machine is leftover from another AMD partnership with Microsoft. The GPU is a mobile GPU that AMD had a hard time selling. It's about the same performance as a PS5, though valve won't be subsidizing it as much. I'd bet $600-$800.
Based on the specs it is a bit bumped up Ryzen 7000/8000 series (Zen 4 arch), with a beefed up GPU (sounds to be about two 780Ms soldered together with a bit of overclocking).
I wouldn't be surprised if MS wanted a mid-generation upgrade to the Xbox but the current economic situation put a damper on it before the hardware could fully materialise and AMD ended up with a practically ready for production APU they couldn't sell to anyone before Valve strolled up.
Here's my source for the Microsoft laptop cpu rumor:
Very safe bet. I'm hoping for it being closer to $600 but I know I don't need it, I don't need it, I don't need it. Sorry I have to keep reminding myself. But I'm very excited for it to bring affordable and seamless Linux gaming to the masses.
At 1000 bucks you are dangerously close to a 9600 9060XT 16gb build, which would run circles around this performance wise.
There is no way its this expensive. It would be deader than a doornail on arrival.
If this thing isn't 750 or less, itll be an impossible sell.
There is absolutely no way they're selling it for less than $400. Whoever said that has absolutely no idea what they're talking about.
They told LTT that they were planning to price it competitively with entry-level PC's, not consoles
Bro, the steam deck was $400 for the base model when new. I got a base model for $330 a few months after release. $400 is really low for this, but it also doesn't have a screen and battery. I'm guessing (hoping) for $600 base model.
No. It's going to be sub PS5 in terms of performance and should be priced accordingly. You can make the argument that games are a bit cheaper on Steam so they can maybe charge a premium for that.
I am ostensibly the target market for this as I refuse to play games at my desk, only the couch. But I would love to get into the Steam ecosystem and play on my couch and PCVR titles. But I would only consider one if it could do the things my PS5 does at a similar price for both the system and VR headset.
Honestly, they could sell at a loss and still profit. Steam has the biggest selection of games bar none, they've built a culture of buying games too collect them with no intention of playing them, and they get a decent cut of every sale. If they thought of it as a 10 year plan they could sell this thing for $400, and undercut the entire rest of the condole scene, land this in the living room of every kid who wants to game world wide, and literally crush the big 3 in sales.
And then Microsoft or Sony would bulk buy 10k steam machines to use in their server rooms. They can't sell at a loss because the hardware is not locked, otherwise people could just buy these and use them for whatever and Valve wouldn't see a cent from those machines. At the very least they need to be sold at a neutral price point, but more than likely they're looking to get some profit over them.
That alone wouldn't solve most of the problems of playing on the couch.
You still need a controller that will go that far and an OS/frontend that works on the TV.
They already tried that with the original steam machines and it flopped hard. It'll be significantly better value or it'll flop again, simple. They're clearly optimizing for price based on the vram/ram specs. Yeah maybe it'll go up after launch but out of the gate it'll be sub-$500/512gb otherwise the whole exercise is pointless
This isn’t why it failed. It failed because the software, user experience, and compatibility was immature. That is no longer the case, as proven by the steamdeck, and offering a mature ecosystem with VR, controller, and console/PC that all interact seamlessly will be the major selling point.
I’m expecting $799.99 for the low storage model, and if it performs as well as a typical $1000-$1200 PC, I think they’ll enjoy the same level of adoption seen by the Steamdeck. The target will be people looking for an entry level to PC gaming, and current PC enthusiasts on lower end hardware looking for an upgrade that’s simple and reasonably positioned price wise against traditional PCs.
It failed for multiple reasons, but a big reason was that they tried to outsource the hardware and basically just got reskins of existing gaming-PC prebuilds, which didn't actually make PCs any less confusing. And they didn't actually save money (and some were overpriced scams) so buyers were basically forced to do as much research as buying an actual gaming PC.
All of that will be solved, and the software/UX/other stuff you mentioned are far more mature, like you say.
Also some of those old steam machines were comically expensive, in part because all the different vendors wanted a cut, in part because some of them made new cases
edit: found a spec sheet for the cheapest version of Bolt II, for almost $1800 you got a gtx 760 and i5 4590, 16 gigs of ddr3, 120gb ssd + 1tb hdd. All of it air cooled. I don't remember new hardware prices back then but it seems steep. And it's far from the most expensive one.
edit2: on the other end of the spectrum, for $400 (without an OS) you could get ibuypower's SBX with an athlon x4 840, 4 gigs of ram and an r5 250X
VR, controller, and console/PC that all interact seamlessly
I don't see it as a killer feature. In fact, the main advantage of these individual devices (as in the new ones, not Steam Deck) is that you don't need the others, rather than that they interact seamlessly.
e.g with Steam Frame, you don't need a gaming PC to actually run Half Life Alyx to be able to play it. If you already have a gaming PC, at most it offers minor advantages over any other VR headset.
e.g with Steam Machine, you don't need a gaming PC to engage with the Valve ecosystem and play on your TV. If you already have a gaming PC, you can already stream it to your TV for free.
Also, ecosystem maturity won't fundamentally change that as a prospective steam machine customer, you will still need to configure game settings. You will still accidentally touch the trackpads in a way that causes issues in some games. Granted, the relative maturity and design improvements will make a big difference. But it's more of a difference in customer retention and satisfaction than a difference that will get Valve's foot in the door with someone invested enough in gaming to prefer a more open ecosystem, yet not invested enough to already own an equivalent console or equivalent/better gaming PC.
There are many ways they could leverage a lower cost which Sony/MS can't/won't, e.g. make generic controllers compatible, sell the console without one, recoup margin on steam controllers (one of the highest-margin tech product categories around these days)
Competing with the console prices is not likely. Not only will they probably sell hardware at a loss, but they step on Sony and Microsoft territory, with whom they have deals to bringing games to steam.
Selling at a loss works for consoles because games will recoup the loss. For pc there is no guarantee. If the steam box is that cheap, corporate sector will order steam machines (by the 100s or 1000s), without guarantee to recoup the loss.
Number of investors think you should be willing to invest in a machine that you probably don't have money for to enrich them. They think you should buy games at $70 or something instead of wait for them to be $30 like on sale. Like I wait. Not all of us want to be in debt.
You're fundamentally misunderstanding what this development means for gaming affordability. Not having to buy a scarce, way overpriced Nvidia (or even AMD) external/discrete GPU to play the latest games means that PC gaming is a whole lot cheaper. If game developers are optimizing for hardware like the Steam Machine - budget external graphics cards and iGPUs suddenly become viable again as well.
Especially with the llm crash, this may keep the fabs running
Its some degree of good from like every direction.
That doesn't mean it doesn't have investors. It means it's not publicly traded. Private investment buy company stock directly. That's the premis behind VC fundraising
All of this is going to be based on the fluctuation of RAM prices and tariffs, as well as whether or not Valve has an existing stockpile of RAM from 6 months ago.
FWIW, Sony just announced a Japan-only PS5, sans optical drive, for about $350. Now, US prices are remaining higher, but the GabeCube is likely to have less performance than a PS5. I can't see them going much over $600 and still having a value proposition. Even that is going to be based on the gigantic library of Steam games that can be played on it that aren't on the PS5.
I'm sure being a handheld had nothing to do with it.
I'm supportive of the effort, but unless it's under $500 (it's not) it's garbage and DOA.
Prebuilt PC market is fucked, it could be 800 and sell like crazy, if the experience is good
Doubt it.
The steam deck provides at least a compelling reason and it didn't sell all that great. This is just pissing money away on shitty hardware.
Console buyers are not going to be pulled away from their eco systems and PC builders are going to know better. At best they're going to get a sliver of the pre built market and they will quickly adjust while the box sku will remain largely untouched.
I'm looking for small cheap boxes to put in other rooms for the family and to replace consoles and it's a non starter for me. Who is actually going to purchase this thing?
You could buy a refurbished laptop, or spend a few extra bucks and get twice the GPU 🤷♂️ and a machine with proper RAM and vRAM.
Price out a build that will compete with this and not require an ATX tower.
I'm working on an ~$800-900 build for my little cousin with a Ryzen 7600X and a Radeon 7600 in an mATX mini-tower. According to the specs I've read, this is at or above the Steam Machine in both processing and graphics power.
Socket AM5 motherboards are weirdly expensive in the ITX form factor; I bought an ITX AM4 motherboard for like $100 a few years ago, but like, Asrock isn't selling a B650M-ITX Pro RS, not in this hemisphere anyway. That and non-stupid ITX cases are difficult to find. A lot of the "it's a PC tower, but ITX size" like the Meshify Nano are being discontinued. So motherboard manufacturers think the ITX market is going for extreme high end, as if we need lots of PCIe lanes on motherboards that only fit one slot, and case manufacturers don't think heat sinks exist.
Have you seen a PS5? ATX is what people already do at this price point.
ITX isn't the pull here.
The success of the Steam Deck clearly proves how many pc users prefer a ready to go console-like experience, over high performance. Anything under 850 will sell like crazy. And considering that this is a Linux pc, i saw this as an absolute win. 2026 could really be the year of Linux.
PC builders aren't interested in prebuilts. If this provides 90% of the experience of a prebuilt at 50% of the price, it makes sense. We don't know the actual percentages yet but you get the idea hopefully.
My point was that many prebuilts are so shit, that it's easy to make a comparatively good product. I mean ffs some of them don't even run their CPUs and RAM at advertised speeds.
Laptops are a completely different breed that this thing isn't gonna compete with, not at 800 bucks, not at 200.
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@sh.itjust.works
Video game news oriented community. No NanoUFO is not a bot :)
Posts.
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I don't think that Valve will sell the Steam Machine at a loss.
Closed-system console vendors often do, then jack up the prices of their games and make their money back as people buy games. So why not Valve?
Two reasons.
They sell an open system. If Valve sells a mini-PC below cost, then a number of people will just buy the thing and use it as a generic mini-PC, which doesn't make them anything. A Nintendo Switch, in contrast, isn't very appealing for anything than running games purchased from Nintendo.
They don't have a practical way to charge more for games for just Steam Machine users --- their model is agnostic to what device you run a purchased game on. So even if they were going to do that, it'd force them to price games non-optimally for non-Steam-Machine users, charge more than would be ideal from Valve's standpoint.
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