"How long is this supposed to TAKE!" ~King Julian

13 hours ago by cm0002 to c/memes

jballs 44 points 10 hours ago

Cons: Will probably lose my job and 401k.

Pros: Might be able to afford a video card by picking up a few extra shifts giving handjobs behind the Wendy's dumpster.

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krashmo 26 points 9 hours ago

Which Wendy's specifically? You know, so I can avoid it.

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jballs 38 points 9 hours ago

If you bring a 5090, it can be whatever Wendy's you want.

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Natanox 40 points 12 hours ago

Can't wait to buy some god damn HDDs for my NAS when this is all over. Let the prices crash baby.

Will be interesting to see what the community does to the over-abundant vector matrizes calculators. Probably run DOOM on.

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CompactFlax 15 points 12 hours ago

I bought RAM just in the cusp of the jump. September I put it in the cart waiting for Black Friday and October came by and it was up 50% and I jumped on.

But I’m deleting stuff on my NAS. I neeeed some big drives.

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cm0002 5 points 9 hours ago

I finally bit the bullet months ago and invested into LTO8 for my cold storage, I still need to buy drives at some point, but at least I've got a decent path to put shit in the mean time so I don't gotta delete anything lolol

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W98BSoD 2 points 9 hours ago

What did that set you back for how much storage?

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cm0002 4 points 9 hours ago

Hmm iirc the physical setup (tape drive, auto loader, HBA card for my server) set me back ~2.5k (with the bulk of that being the drive itself) and then the actual tapes was prob another ~1k for 200TBs raw, but more like 100TB actual usable since I use another tape for a backup off-site copy

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grue 2 points 10 hours ago

I had a Beelink Me Mini and a half dozen NVMEs in my cart around that time, but didn't pull the trigger when the price started rising and now I'm kicking myself for it.

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OwOarchist 0 points 6 hours ago

But I’m deleting stuff on my NAS.

Yeah ... until drives become cheap again, my solution is just to go through and see what data I can afford to live without, then delete it to free up more space.

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CMDR_Horn 3 points 10 hours ago

2 of the 6 drives in one of my pools is 7.5 years old. I found that out last week and had to bite the bullet to buy a spare and swap it in. Doing a resilver with those makes me cringe

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Ioughttamow 2 points 11 hours ago

Amen

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zloubida 20 points 12 hours ago

At this point, I'm not sure it will crash anymore. Reasonably it should have crashed months ago! Why didn't it?

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Salvo 36 points 11 hours ago

Everybody knows it will crash.

Some very powerful people are going to lose a lot of money when it crashes.

They are doing everything they can to postpone the crash, or scam others into taking the fall.

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rumschlumpel 11 points 12 hours ago

Starting to look like the nuclear fusion energy thing. "It's going to be ready in 20 years!", they said for 50 years.

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dandi8 9 points 5 hours ago

People have been cautiously pointing toward mid-to-late 2027 for a while now, as that's when a lot of the huge loans are coming due.

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NathanRanch 4 points 5 hours ago

A lot of the DCs have to be built, before they can go bankrupt. It is that stupid.

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dandi8 3 points 5 hours ago

I think companies like Oracle are on the hook whether those DCs get built or not.

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NathanRanch 5 points 5 hours ago

Oracle is cooked already for sure.

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Valmond 1 point 3 hours ago

Wouldn't people sell out like a bit before that then?

And wouldn't people sell out before that then?

Etc.

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dandi8 3 points 3 hours ago

Not sure what you mean. If you mean "cashing out", that's what the IPOs are for.

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Valmond 1 point an hour ago

Is the time limit not up on those? (I really don't have the foggiest about how big a part they play in the total valuation of it all).

But yes I meant selling off/cashing out.

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DarkCloud -13 points 11 hours ago

AI is good at a few things that have real world value. It recently dropped 200+ mathematical proofs that are real and genuine but are the lowest hanging fruit - they're the least creative unsolved problems in maths (now solved), ones that could be solved with enough time and work. Not a proof of intelligence, just a proof of computational power/duration.

That sort of large "solution space" exploration is stuff mathematicians might not have the time/patience for, but LLMs can do.

Likewise, producing content faster than humans can is another thing LLMs are really good at, with some reports already saying upwards of 50% of new content posted to the Internet is now LLM generated (dead internet theory).

https://www.pewresearch.org/...

LLMs have also recently taken over game development, and gotten to the point that they're making full 3D scenes, and even videogames.

...and if you haven't heard, a team recently duplicated the Adobe Creative Suite of programs in about a week. Vibe coding in Rust with lots of Claude Opus.

Yep, it looks like "AI" is here to stay.

The biggest concerns are probably: it being able to "flood the zone" of content pushing certain ideas/narratives. Either from tech billionaire fascists, or foreign influnce campaigns.

So determining, monitoring, and countering any biases from that is probably going to be a huge challenge.

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RedGreenBlue 4 points 7 hours ago

The question is, can i defend having billions in data center hardware that i can't turn on and might not be in demand when i can? Will people be running efficient local models instead of paying for my spyware riddled software as a service?

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Jako302 2 points 3 hours ago

For the AI bubble it doesn't really matter if AI is good at a few things as long as they are bleeding money at an unprecedented rate.

Expenditure is still over ten times industry revenue and it doesn't seem to change in the near future. The only one making any money is nvidia with their chips.

As for the supposed things they are good at, that's a whole other story:

Half these mathematical proofs are pretty much stolen from different researchers. Ive seen an article were the ai copied the intro of a draft one for one and now openAI tries to claim ownership. The other half could be utter bullshitt since they aren't verified right now. That whole thing is essentially a publicity stunt without much substance until everything is cleared up.

While AI is much faster at producing content than humans, purely ai generated contend is still shit. It probably is great for radio pop/country music and Hollywood films since they follow a very predictive standard, but everything that isn't hot garbage from the get go needs human input. The main use of the created content right now seems yo be deception and missinfromation, which is great for some people but a really bad thing to base an entire industry on.

As for all the "decompilation" projects going on right now, they essentially copy past the UI and then vibe code the rest. That's neither reverse engeering nor decompiling, that's just a copyright lawsuit waiting to happen. Instead of putting effort into open source projects these projects try to steal everything (as AIs do) and end up with a somewhat functional product that has questionable stability, unknown security holes and a codebase that can never be expanded on cause no one understands it while simultaneously being a legal nightmare to work with since its a copyright infringement and has no applicable license.

I agree that its sadly here to stay, but none of its current capabilities could reasonably support the AI bubble.

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Datz 1 point 2 hours ago

Counterpoint: All that shit expensive as fuck. Why rush math proofs with AI rather than doing it 100x cheaper by paying a young mathematician over a few years? This isn't paying AI 100 million dollars to cure cancer, that might actually be worth it.

Even if some problems can be solved cost-efficiently, most of the proofs so far is showing off, ignoring costs.

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Pratai 11 points 8 hours ago

Remember how the housing bubble never popped?

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DmMacniel 7 points 7 hours ago

Uh are you ignoring the huge financial crises, and how banks had to be bailed out?

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Pratai 14 points 5 hours ago

I remember housing costs NEVER going down.

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DmMacniel 3 points 5 hours ago

Yeah... :(

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tacosanonymous 8 points 11 hours ago

I doubt that we will get much better prices when the bubble crashes.

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sam 4 points 4 hours ago

I don't wanna rent the hardware for my instance forever :(

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FishFace 2 points an hour ago

Even if the AI bubble collapses tomorrow (it won't), to see lower consumer prices you would either need old stock to be marked down or the fabs that are currently making AI cards to switch to making gaming cards and those cards to be manufactured and come through the market. That will take months. Not only does the bubble need to pop, but everyone involved needs to believe and accept that it has popped, otherwise they will continue to keep prices high and AI production high in the hope that their plans remain correct.

Remember that it's psychologically much harder to accept making a less money than you thought, which happens when you mark down prices, compared to making more money than you thought, which happens when you mark up prices! This is why prices tend to be "downwards sticky" and so, instead of going down when demand drops/supply improves, they instead tend to stagnate while other prices continue to rise gradually with inflation.

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Yeller_king 2 points 36 minutes ago

The bubble popping probably won't help since they've stopped making consumer hardware altogether.

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Jenthura 2 points 8 hours ago

How long is this going* to take?

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