Dems’ blue wave isn’t nearly as in the bag as some think, so says pollsters

an hour ago by MicroWave to c/politics

Democrats are currently leading Republicans in the RealClearPolling generic congressional average

A blue wave may not be as certain as some polls have predicted, experts warn ahead of Election Day, noting forecasts may be skewed because Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.

While current polls paint a positive picture for Democrats ahead of the midterms this November 3 — some pollsters are questioning whether that number may be inflated due to supporters of President Donald Trump being difficult to reach by pollsters, Axios reported.

Polls previously underestimated Trump’s support during the presidential races in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Even though midterm polling is typically more accurate, some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center, told Axios.

givesomefucks 17 points an hour ago

Cook Political Report forecasts Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats in the House, which would give the party a narrow majority. In the Senate, Cook predicts a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats would need four seats to take control of the chamber.

The current DNC chair is gonna run a fair presidential primary in less than two years...

No matter what happens the neoliberals will say midterms could have been better and Martin needs to resign. Because neoliberals have no chance in hell of winning a fair primary.

And if we get a progressive in 2028 into the White House, they pick the next DNC chair in 2029.

We're on the cusp of some real FDR shit, but neoliberals (as always) will do anything including helping Republicans to stop it.

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Soulphite 15 points an hour ago

Trump supporters are notoriously difficult to reach, according to a report.

Well, that's because they can't read, are too poorly educated to obtain a proper job to afford communication utilities, and/or stubborn. Majority of them are just pedophile criminal racists and enjoy their leaders being the same.

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dreamkeeper 1 point 22 minutes ago

Trump supporters are also less likely to show up for a midterm, but they conveniently left that truth out of their clickbait.

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akilou 6 points an hour ago

The only people saying it's "in the bad" are other pollsters. The pollsters should just figure it out between themselves and leave us to do a Democracy.

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givesomefucks 2 points 36 minutes ago

It's not the pollsters...

It's people writing opinion pieces about polls.

Like always tho, it's important to remember a billionaire can pay for 100 polls and publish the 1 that agrees with them.

Like, from the article the polls and question are already counting Republican responses more, and at least one of the pollsters is a "Republican pollster:

“I think it’s telling that we’re hanging our hopes on ‘The polls are wrong,’” Republican pollster Brent Buchanan told Axios. “That’s not very strong.”

And he flat out said "our only hope is this isn't real"

The only thing Republicans love more than being victims is being winners, if they think Dems are going to win state races, they'll invent reasons not to vote. Otherwise they'd have to vote and lose, they'd rather not "play".

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Big_Boss_77 5 points 18 minutes ago

Cool story, go vote.

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TryingToBeGood 3 points 32 minutes ago

I’ll believe it when I see it.

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Corvidae 2 points 37 minutes ago

It's the Eff Off crowd. "🖕" MAGA.

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YoiksAndAway 1 point 18 minutes ago

If this is the best they can come up with to spread FUD, I'm still feeling pretty good.

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NonconfrontationaI 0 points 30 minutes ago

Who could have predicted neoliberal ghouls whispering "at least I'm not the other guy" into voters ears like wormtongue would lead to Luke warm results!?

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