US pulls last aircraft carrier in Asia as Trump focuses on Iran and the Western Hemisphere
4 days ago by UnderpantsWeevil to c/world
The lack of a U.S. carrier in the Pacific may be short-lived if the Navy deploys another in the next couple of months. But it shows how the open-ended operations with Iran are running some American sailors ragged, analysts say, while the Trump administration further retreats from the Asia-Pacific region and focuses on the Western Hemisphere.
“The administration says that the Pacific is supposed to be the most important behind the Western Hemisphere,” said Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Instead, the U.S. is “doing the exact opposite” of its previously expressed goal of pulling out of the Middle East.
If Iran can run the Navy ragged, imagine what India or China can do
So much of the joke is that they won't need to.
唯一的制胜之策就是不参与
Translated to be “The only winning move is not to play.”
someone replied to my reply in the thread and I remembered this, so posting here - https://lemmy.world/post/50701889/25315013 - ignore or look as you wish, I know your comment above was just a quick thing, but sitll thought I'd link to where I found it since I ran across it again :)
I didn't - I saw it on Lemmy, which linked to some sort of blog I think. I don't remember details, it's been a long day. heh.
That said, I haven't been out there in a while, I should visit. Good site.
this. its amazing how quickly he gutted us to the point we are a paper tiger.
It was. That's why Putin wanted him to be president.
The destruction of the US was always the goal.
And yet we still spend so much freaking money on our military.
Especially that dork who named his companies after Tolkien things and practically has almost all the world's cameras.
Manchurian Candidate: (intelligently acts on codewords after sophisticated brainwashing)
Donchurian Candidate: "Oh hey Pooty how's it hangin. Sabotage an American institution? Another one? How much money? Sounds like a deal. A great deal. Biglyest deal."
I don't think I've lived to see a president who wasn't accused of this
Thats hunny to his ears.
Leaders around the world are treating the US military defeat against Iran as a given and are planning for a future that does not include the US in any decisive role.
The current response of the nations in the Middle East is telling: plans are being drawn up and security cooperations being forged, while pretty much ignoring the US altogether.
Its likely a precursor for what we’ll see happen with nations surrounding the Sea of Japan and South China Sea in the upcoming months.
The largest, most powerful nation on earth has literally botched this war. Militarily, politically and economically. And as a result we’re now witnessing the US led global world order unravel completely. I think we’ve entered a very scary time.
botched
It was never winnable. No western nation would have won against Iran. The war is the dumbest war to begin with because of how unwinnable it was. Why are people acting as if Trump could have outsmarted Iran at any point ever? No NATO military leader would have won. The best choice for anyone is to just not start a war with Iran. A smart leader would have just not bombed Iran. No smart leader could win this war. That's how stupid the war is. The smartest NATO leader right now, if they were fighting a war with Iran, would admit defeat.
It's relatively easy to win that scenario you just have to commit 70 to 100k ground troops.
you should look up Iran on a topographic map some time, and see if you can find another example in history where the west (or russia for that matter) has failed to invade a country that is topographicaly similar, and much much smaller.
The invasion was fine, with full air support, the occupation isn't a military challenge that's a entirely social issue.
you simply don't have a clue of the logistics nightmare that would be providing for that number of soldiers, specially now that Iran has bombed most USA bases that used to be around them
You would need turkey and kuwait support.
Troops who also quite likely would think the whole thing is an incredibly stupid farce, and that morale / commitment factor can't be ignored.
You can have tons of advanced tech, stockpiles of munitions, highly trained fighters, and still lose because they don't even know or care why they're there in the first place. History is full of examples.
Defenders are fighting for their homeland, invaders are often (not always) there because their babydink leaders wanna be in a history book.
Invasions and taking turf for national "interests" is just stupid strategy anymore, especially in a globally connected world, and troglodyte fossils like Dump and Pootin refuse to accept that reality.
Vietnam, Korea, The Middle East, all of it has been a tragic waste of human lives and a national embarrassment.
And somehow they keep getting to flavor it so the public will buy it, even while so many people personally know veterans that have been used up, maimed, and thrown out like garbage.
It's not sarcasm, it's a statement that winning a war against Iran is only a question of how many casualties you're willing to accept.
The US hasn't won a war since WWIi, and our current leaders are literally the dumbest people who have ever managed a government. Nobody fears, or cares about America any more.
Everything is actually going according to plan.
No one expects China to invade Taiwan because an American aircraft carrier has left the region. But the carrier’s absence gives the Chinese another opportunity to show its strength, said Bryan Clark, a former Navy submariner who is a defense analyst at the Hudson Institute.
Uh, fucking, I DO!
How many years and how fortuitous do the circumstances have to get before people stop insisting an invasion is imminent?
There's an enormous amount of value in China and Taiwan remaining friendly trading partners. Westerners refuse to acknowledge this.
It would be indeed incredibly stupid for Xi to try to invade Taiwan. There's the economic cost and there's a real possibility that he could wind up in the same situation Trump and Putin are currently in. Lots of those pesky drones creating a stalemate situation.
But authoritarians are being really stupid lately, so we can't discount the possibility of Xi being as stupid as Trump and Putin.
China is the one superpower who isn't wasting their resources on a pointless war, and are investing heavily in infrastructure and their people, and their manufacturing base for EVERYTHING is unparalleled.
They are taking over the world without firing a shot. Why would they screw that up just to take a tiny island that is no more than a symbol. Let the Westerners think they have some sort of power over them, they know the real truth.
You are saying that like the US and Russia weren't in way better positions before their respective wars.
What the commenter you're replying to is saying, is that we can't trust dumbfuck dictators to not make the stupid decision of invading someone else, no matter how idiotic it might be.
Why would they screw that up just to take a tiny island that is no more than a symbol.
Dictators have startet wars for way less.
we can’t discount the possibility of Xi being as stupid as Trump and Putin.
I'm trying to think of a comparable series of blunders the Chinese have committed.
Xi's much more in the mold of an Obama or a Merkle than Putin or Trump
What about the sino Vietnamese war, that’s one blunder I remember
You need to cut back on all the tankie propganda you're consuming a little bit, buddy.
Tibet came under the rule of the Qing dynasty of China in 1720 after the Qing expelled the forces of the Dzungar Khanate from Tibet
:-/
hahhaha and there it is gentlemen, tankie gonna tank
The funny thing is I don't think China actually expected the US military to nope themselves out potentially faster than their ability to surpass their reliance on Taiwan. I wouldn't be surprised if they use it to strongarm a deal into essentially purchasing Taiwan if no one is left to back them.
I think everyone underestimates Taiwan. It's not a defenseless country.
Yes PRC has a massive army, but Taiwan is an island. The PRC military force on the island would be limited to how many they could send across the strait and maintain supply lines to. A large part of the island has cliffs for coastline, so there's a limited number of locations they could land. The landing operation would be a bigger operation than D-Day. The Germans didn't have much for radar and there was no satellite intel back then, and there were a lot more potential landing spots for D-Day. The Germans didn't know where the allies would make their landing. Taiwan on the other hand will be tracking those ships all the way across the strait, and they will know exactly where they'll be coming ashore.
And of course there's drones. Russia was supposed to take over Ukraine in a week (two weeks tops!) in their special operation. The US is supposed to be able to completely dominate Iran. But those damn drones are a real problem, aren't they? Where do you suppose Ukraine gets the chips from to control those drones? Taiwan likely has the designs Ukraine is using and they have drone production going completely on their island. Even if China were to completely blockade Taiwan, they could continue to produce drones endlessly. And those Ukrainian sea babies effectively neutralized the Russian Navy. Will the Chinese Navy fare better?
We can reasonably assume China is sharing tech with Russia to test on the battlefield against drone technology that Ukraine is likely sharing with Taiwan. Russia has to keep their navy far away from Ukraine to keep their ships safe from the drones. The US navy is keeping it's distance from Iran for similar reasons. If China has to keep its navy far from Taiwan to keep their ships safe from drones, an invasion of Taiwan just isn't going to work, is it?
Look at a a map of Taiwan in relation to China. Taiwan is tiny, and it's right off the coast. If China wants it, there is no stopping them. We're certainly not going to stop them with our 6000 mile supply line, and the dumbest people to ever operate a country since Caligula.
China and Taiwan already do an enormous amount of trade. And some of Taiwan's biggest companies are heavily invested on the Chinese mainland.
Despite the DPP's fervent desires, that's not going to change. So now the only question is whether an isolationistv party can continue to hold a majority in a country with an increasingly China centric economy.
But... but China bad!!!
The point of having 11 carrier is that you can always have several of them in maintenance while others are in operation and still keep a reserve. It's a massive mismanagement of assets to somehow have carriers running ragged and yet still need to pull carrier from other commitments.
Can't even be competently evil. Yee yee ass Wana be evil empire.
it might be smart to take taiwan now
Or just peacefully integrate socio-economically over the next 50 years. You kill a lot less people that way
China seems to be forgoing the peaceful, long term route as of late.
Details?
China has stated it would recognize not so much independence of Hong Kong but its self autonomy that allows it to run. They promised to the UK after the hand over to always respect that going forward. They held that up for a while but started pushing for legislatures and legislation that was friendly or directly from the mainland. When the expected upset came and people protested, they came down pretty hard on protests.
I know it was an extradition bill but there was a lot of valid concerns it'd be used to persecute unwanted dissidence and ship them to the mainland where they could simply disappear.
The Hong Kong protests everyone forgot about when covid started.
China takes Taiwan - ram prices will go through the roof - don't understand how trumptydumpty's tech friends allowed him to do this. Oh well, the world may become a better place with China in the captain's seat; Xi at least seems more intelligent and stable than Trump.
China takes Taiwan - ram prices will go through the roof - don’t understand how trumptydumpty’s tech friends allowed him to do This
Because USA tech friends want that: they want the trillion profits from squeezing the worker class out of the means of compute. Once we are all slaves we will pay back the dividends tenfold. They don't care about China or Taiwan, they only care about China's and Taiwan's billionaire class, which is with them anyways.
Additionally, if China takes Taiwan, they'll be able to exert heavy influence on Korea and Japan, as a huge part of their import/export flows through Taiwan Strait. Might be able to get the countries to cut down on diplomatic relations with the West, perhaps even getting rid of a few of USA's military bases in Japan and South Korea
China takes Taiwan - ram prices will go through the roof
Guess who has figured out how to make cheap high end RAM already?
If China feints towards Taiwan, the Taiwanese government flinches, and the TSMC factory goes to in smoke, China becomes a top 3 provider of high end chips inside of the month.
You're assuming China can take Taiwan. Authoritarians don't seem to be doing so well at bullying smaller countries that have a lot of drones.
Why would RAM prices go up? The normal process for China seems to be to scale up and massively cut prices.
That's a potential scenario in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I think it's extremely unlikely for 2 major reasons:
China has very little incentive to invade Taiwan. At the current trend, China can just smother Taiwan instead. China has repeatedly demonstrated that they can impose a 100% naval blockade on Taiwan and nobody has a plan for how to break that blockade.
Even if China invaded Taiwan, somebody would have to actually do the act of blowing up all the Taiwanese chip plants. That would leave Taiwan without it's single biggest asset in a post invasion scenario. There's no reason to think it would reverse an invasion, it would just remove one of their biggest bargaining chip.
It's a war. Factories get destroyed, skilled workers die. There's no way China invades and chip production continues without a hitch all the way through. Even in the best case scenario I expect years of lowered outputs.
The question was why prices would go up after China had control of the chip factories. That's an entirely separate question from how many of the chip factories would survive.
But it's also crazy to think that China would invade with boots on the ground. They've shown repeatedly that they can enforce 100% naval blockades on a moments notice and keep it up as long as they like. They can literally go back to medieval tactics and win via siege. That keeps Chinese military assets and personnel safe while also preserving infrastructure.
You're absolutely right that it almost certainly wouldn't continue without a hitch. The blockade would stop all the raw material shipments and all the exports. Despite claims that Taiwan would blow up the factories themselves, I don't see why they would; once a takeover was underway blowing them up wouldn't serve as a deterrent but it would remove the ability to use them for negotiations.
American ally-ship increasingly loses value as the Donald Administration progresses.
I wonder what the next president will do to try and win it back.
Latin American dictators seem to be lining up behind him and Rubio like ducklings.
I think the next president is going to inherit an absolute rogue's gallery of "friends"
I don't know what they'll do, if anything. But what they'll have to do, if they want to mend all the strained and broken relationships, it's a whole fucking lot.
I mean a big mea culpa, true and long term changes to how the country is run, and probably lots and lots of concessions.
All that sounds Woke to me
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Bye Taiwan, so long and thanks for all the chipsets.
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