At this precise moment in time? Probably. Over the next 50 years? US invasion is less likely.

But as the world warms, all countries will be looking at the land closest to the poles.

Eventually there’s going to be a major war over Antarctica, but probably not in my lifetime.

The factor you're missing is that in Canada we can take the fight to them in a way no other country can.

You're right that they don't care about violence elsewhere. They will care when the bridge outside their town gets blown up. Their willingness to endure pain is next to zero.

People have been chasing ICE out of neighborhoods, banning them from city properties in LA and NYC, building rap sheets to try them once the admin leaves office in Colorado, etc, but fundamentally they're a political problem that can't be solved with violence (without creating much much more violence and harm in the process).

If the USA starts a war with Canada many Americans will see joining Canada as a means of improving their own situation: Canada would likely offer citizenship to enlistees.

A significant portion of the US is rightfully pissed, but oppressed by the fascist and fascist enabling majority. However, I do feel like war with Canada would be seen as enough excuse to get spicier

I don't think you realize how many US military personnel have worked directly with Canadians regularly as part of their career, especially the ones in charge of everything. We are pretty much constantly running military training exercises and joint missions at this point.

We've got a ship docked at your base in Hawaii right now. Pacific Rimguard 2026 just wrapped up in Asia with another one of our warships. There are hundreds of Canadian military personnel permanently stationed at NORAD. We spent 13 years in Afghanistan with the US.

Even if only 10% were intentionally fucking up, it would still absolutely cripple the capabilities.

Not to mention the complete lack of a useful target. What are they going to do to "capture" the country? Kidnap the prime minister? Our system doesn't actually have a problem handling that. You could hold our entire parliament hostage and you still wouldn't actually be able to get Canadians to do anything useful. What would the point be?

Taking our the 10 military bases we have? We wouldn't even give a shit, they don't run or do anything that we need to function as a country.

Afghanistan was a shit show, and the people were a different skin colour and spoke a different language, soldiers could at least somewhat talk themselves into keeping things "separate" mentally. However, do you think the average American soldier is going to be able to shoot people that looks like their own brother, sister, son, daughter, father, mother, etc. they left at home without immediately having a mental breakdown?

We saw this kind of shit already happen between Russia and Ukraine, where lots of Russians just decided to surrender or do their least. It doesn't work well, even with a dictatorship willing to shoot you for disobeying. If the US military tried to punish or shoot soliders en masse for refusing to invade Canada you'd have riots in every single city in the US.

What does "in control" mean in this case? How do you "control" a city?

Being there with the military and not having an opposing force is one thing, they could do that. What benefit would they get out of such occupation though?

There's usually one of 2 purposes to an invasion, capture the territory and make it part of your own for financial purposes, or to kill everyone (or a large portion) to free up space for your own people to take over.

However, getting anything financial out of invading Canada is impossible realistically. They can't just come in and directly capture the tax dollars or something, none of that even exists physically at this point for a start, and any sort of force they use is just going to result in people refusing to pay taxes, the economy tanking, and them not getting anything anyways. They would have no way to enforce anything against such mass resistance.

They already get most of the resources we produce, the Oil in Alberta almost entirely flows to them for example. If they invaded they can say goodbye to that, even the US military couldn't protect that much pipeline from terrorism.

There's just no useful goal to invading Canada in the first place, so if they do it out of pure spite they're going to have to contend with their own population being absolutely livid about it. Like full riots in every US city livid. It will make the Palestine and BLM protests look like an episode of Mr. Dressup.