64% of Americans say they wouldn’t support Trump: poll
3 years ago by btaf45 to c/politics
Sub 20% turn out for under 30's in TX is more embarrassing.
As a former Texan, it's quite difficult to vote. The work culture there makes it even harder but the state also purposely makes it as inconvenient as possible. If you're low income and don't have vacation time or anything like that it's really hard to get out and vote in-person. Now I'm in a state with mail-in voting by default and Texas makes me even more sick when I saw how easy it's supposed to be.
More people could definitely make more of an effort there, but the barriers to vote shouldn't be overlooked imo
Then what does? And what's the solution?
Because I don't buy that Texans are just inherently worse citizens.
It's terrifying if you consider the norm. Trump has something like 70+ felony counts, arguably the worst orator in history, and a verified rapist.
He's still getting around 35-40% support consistently.
It's fucking terrifying how good the Fox propaganda machine is.
Yeah the last few years since Covid especially have taught me that however utterly stupid and gullible we thought people were as you said, it turns out they are WAY stupider than we ever dreamed possible. And THAT is what is terrifying to me - I already knew people were plenty dumb so to see firsthand how badly I overestimated them...
Very unpopular opionion: He's a very good orator, even though he can't form a coherent sentence. He gets his points across with out actually speaking them. His followers hear him on a purely emotional level and he inspires their extreme loyalty and devotion.
When you consume talk radio, Facebook, and Fox News, it understandable that you would think he is the greatest President ever. He's not, he was the worst President ever.
Some people process loss or being lied to in different ways. And some people take time to process that loss more than others.
Denial: The election was stolen!
Anger: We have to storm the capital!
Bargaining: We were just trying to protect our democracy.
Depression: Biden is just as bad. <----- Most people are here.
Acceptance: Trump committed election fraud and is going to prison for it
Though I think many MAGA folk will be stuck on depression for quite some time.
Yes, I read what you wrote...30% of people are bat shit crazy and will vote for anything.
Trump consistently polls above that threshold...that's a terrifying number and it's not statistically normal.
If Biden had 70 felonies would you vote for him or Trump?
I agree with you. Virtually everything l, even random totally trivial matters of taste/opinion come out 50/50 these days. The country is deeply polarized. For anything to come out with a 2:1 margin is a landslide. Trump is a huge loser. I just hope he stays in the race long enough to sink the Republicants.
BecauseImDoingMyBest
It is Andrew Tate's sock puppet. /s
Teachers Aid lol
The guy attempted a coup. He should be on trial for his life right now... and still 30+% of Americans might support him.
it's 30% if you only read the title, at the end of the article it says:
Two other polls released this week show President Joe Biden and Trump competitive in a 2024 matchup, with Biden edging Trump by just a point in surveys from Marist and Quinnipiac.
unless you check how they conducted the poll, you don't know if either one is correct.
was it made in an university campus or at the exit of an NRA convention? those will give you wildly different results.
The two claims are not in conflict. Election polls account for propensity to vote.
The 36% will turn out to vote. It will be an uphill struggle for the Dems to get turnout high enough to defeat them.
But the non-fash media will smugly proclaim him defeated anyway, helping to depress turnout enough that he wins. Again.
Dangerous times.
For anyone wondering here are the two polls:
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/...
Data for it: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/...
"This survey of 1,220 adults was conducted August 11th through August 14th, 2023 by the Marist Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the United States were contacted through a multi-mode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online"
"Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/...
When the House of Representatives voted in February 1974 to give the House Judiciary Committee subpoena power to investigate Nixon, it did not have the weight of public opinion behind it. According to a poll conducted by Gallup just days before the vote, only 38 percent of Americans were in favor of impeachment. And although a solid majority of Americans did eventually come to support impeachment, that moment didn’t arrive until quite late in the game.
My friends, the MAGA cult stuck with Trump through racism, rape, hush money, and an attempted coup! They are not budging.
Also every year, 2½ million older Americans die. So in the same eight years, that’s as many as 20 million fewer older voters. Which means that between Trump’s election in 2016 and the 2024 election, the number of Gen Z (born in the late 1990s and early 2010s) voters will have advanced by a net 52 million against older people. That’s about 20 percent of the total 2020 eligible electorate of 258 million Americans.
And unlike previous generations, Gen Z votes… young people in recent years to vote more frequently for Democrats and progressive policies than prior generations did when of similar age
Not saying that 2024 is in the bag for Biden, but a lot has changing in the electorate. And I’ll take a little hope when I can get it.
How many of those trump cultists admit today to voting and supporting G.W. Bush? You know they didn’t vote for Gore, if they voted at all, but they supported Bush and they supported his vision to make the US the world’s police despite claiming they are against this.
Do you think the people who supported Nixon were somehow dumber than Americans are today? Functional literacy was much lower in the 70s.
There are large swathes of people who just support the status quo. Nixon being the villain in his own story is “common knowledge” now and Trump’s just stupid Nixon.
The difference is that when Nixon was President we all shared the same facts and reality.
Today's Republicans will simply never accept the reality that Trump is a criminal.
If you don't understand that distinction, you've been missing the big picture.
I really like how well this puts things in perspective.
He's a real estate developer rebel for the workin' man
I guess that's a good thing, but that % should be way higher for someone that committed treason, among numerous other crimes (as well as being just a terrible person in general.)
If they could read thwyd be very upset
Complete and utter indoctrination that's been heavily aimed at that demographic for the last three decades, at least.
But he's hurting the right people!
Down ballot Republicans!
....becuase they very much may
36% is enough to elect, if they all vote.
Have you ever participated in one of these polls? I haven't. None of my friends have. Who are they polling?
Lots of people. I have. The linked AP article says they polled 1165 people, which seems small compared to the 332 million, but the math checks out for a 95% confidence level and a 3% margin of error.
How did they do it? Phone? Email?
The thing is that they can be 95% sure they are within 3% of what they’d get if they polled everyone. But that’s it. The way people answer polls doesn’t always translate to the way they vote or do anything else.
I'm not American, but my wife used to be in these pills here. I think it started with like music polls, have you hear this song in the last week in the radio etc. Later on it was TV, product placement in supermarkets, news events, local, state and federal elections.
Half the time she admitted she had nfi what they were talking about so just made shit up so the call ended quickly and she got whatever payment/reward they were giving out.
There have definitely been periods when polls were quite skewed because they were conducted by phone and they over-represented people with landlines. I guess because it’s harder to get a “phone book” of cell numbers. This skewed actual outcomes of the polls.
I think they still have similar issues. They probably underrepresent people who change phones often or just don’t use the telephone to communicate. Sometimes they’re conducted online and recruited over email. There are all different ways that that can skew more to one type of person.
And when they say they have such and such a confidence interval, that does not mean they are that confident they’ve controlled for all the biases. It’s just simple statistics math about sample sizes.
I think we have seen very clearly in recent presidential elections how unreliable polls are. Not only do people answer them differently than they fill out ballots, there just isn’t a perfect way to be sure you’re polling people who will actually vote.
74 million people voted for him in 2020...which is about 22% of the population of the US in 2020. Now 36% would support him. I realize the two numbers aren't directly comparable because only 67% of the people who could vote in 2020 did (and that was the highest it has been since 1980), but it's still not a great feeling.
I feel like ~1 in 3 people being selfish assholes kind of checks out, though. It's a trend I really noticed during Covid.
Been the same for 6 years. Even damn poll - he’s always hovering around that number no matter how hard he’s fucking up.
A lot of people really believe that Trump, the man who puts his name on everything, is a selfless martyr. Not a wealthy grifter looking for new suckers willing to line his pockets with cash.
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.” - George Carlin
This is why we need ranked choice voting. The extremists would never win if we did.
And the Democrats fight against it, because they are just as much part of the anti-democratic systems as the outright fascists.
At this point I think 36% of Americans are just trolling
no worries mate, luckily the US election system does not have a flaw in it that technically allows 23% of voters to decide the presidency
Having an election system where the majority of the votes doesn't win is blatantly undemocratic and downright insane. As evidenced by the last two times that happened in the US.
I think the Napomovoco whatever it's called will be completed before that would happen.
Of course then the US is still stuck in a 2 party system and that shit will need to be fixed.
Here is an alternative Piped link(s): https://piped.video/tUX-frlNBJY
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I'm open-source, check me out at GitHub.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but there are absolutely that mouth breathers in the US. A few months ago I drove by a fucking Trump rally that is held weekly out in some rural parking lot in Washington State, sans Trump.
I have two neighbors with a let's go Brandon banner plaster to the front of their house. Another guy ran for city council on a platform to mandate all teachers to carry AR-15s at school. There's a lot of bananas bullshit out there still. These people believe that the United States is a failing state and the only way to save it is to kill liberals.
I was curious about who the 64% of Americans are, because I've never done a poll in my life. This is what I found:
NORC gathers data for the polls through its probability-based AmeriSpeak® Panel, a breakthrough survey approach that achieves an industry-leading response rate and includes difficult-to-reach demographic groups, such as rural and low-income households.
For AmeriSpeak's Omnibus survey, 1,000 nationally representative adults age 18 and older are drawn from the AmeriSpeak Panel and are interviewed online and by phone.
The people that are drawn from the panel are all preregistered. So these people sign up, and are asked questions every month. The same people. Every month. Then they do some sort of probability math on those numbers and run it as a news story.
That's how polls work. I'm not sure if you genuinely don't know, but that's just how they are done.
You can very accurately extrapolate data on the entire population with just 1000 participants. The flaw is in geography distribution, population distribution, willingness to poll, and other types of sample bias, but if they account for those then that's perfectly valid.
Good on you for looking it up. I've seen so many comments from people who don't look it up and just go "they only asked 2000 people so this is bullshit". I initially had thought your original comment would be just another one of those till I read it all.
The bigger problem is that a large number of the remaining 36% will support him at all cost. (that last part is extremely important)
Those people see this as a WAR.
While everyone else is busy making some funny meme or writing a snarky comment on Twitter, those people are prepping for war. Radicalizing our youth. Stockpiling guns. Getting ready for a fight.
They see it as a war because they are finding themselves (and their ideals) in the minority and feel their voice is being taken away. I've heard those sentiments directly from their mouths. From my perspective, the problem is that instead of rallying being some other GOP candidate, they've decided to back the one who used possible criminal tactics like fake electors to ignore the peoples votes and remain in power. Something that in my opinion should amount to treason. We're finding ourselves in a shitty situation now. Stuck between a nice old man who's cognitive ability is fading and a man starving for authoritarian power and willing to take it at all cost. I don't know what is going to happen, but I'm curious to see if 2020 was the beginning of the full collapse of the Republican party and what will rise in it's ashes. A 3 party system?
Pfft, Joe biden's cognitive ability is not fading. If anyone is, it's Trump.
I'm just being a realist. I voted for the guy but I feel like he's too old for another term. Trump has no cognitive ability. He operates stickily on nearsighted emotional reaction with no capability to comprehend the consequences for his words or actions.
No way the US process allows for a stable 3 serious parties.
I predict the GOP falls, and the DNC splits into two parties: the establishment free-market capitalists who bill themselves as the "common sense" party, and the progressives.
GOP will absorb into establishment DNC, lose the outright homophobia and fascism and fall back to the quiet dog whistles, just enough to keep the old GOP base voting for them against the progressives.
They see it as a war because they are finding themselves (and their ideals) in the minority and feel their voice is being taken away.
Possibly because their ideals suck. Pretty much every conservative idea is a bad one.
I hope a 3 party system doesn't form. That would effectively mean the DNC would win every election. Which sounds great for exactly one election cycle, after that not so much. Power breeds corruption.
The better alternative is for the GOP to gets its act together and start trying to win elections by policy and running stuff by data. We need two functional parties and right now we have one that sorta works and the other that is eating horse dewormer.
I think it would guarantee a DNC win for this and maybe the next election cycle. But I would bet that after awhile a 3 party system would spread the electorate out a little more. Maybe like a more left leaning DNC, a more moderate middle of the road party and a further right leaning 3rd party. I personally would like more options. Then again, that might make it easier for the far right to gain power. I don't know... I'm certainly not an expert when it comes to this stuff. Just thinking out loud.
The better alternative is for the GOP to gets its act together and start trying to win elections by policy and running stuff by data
Which sounds great for exactly one election cycle, after that not so much. Power breeds corruption.
I think it sounds great for more than one election cycle to the trans people being targeted by the GOP's legislative genocide campaign.
The better alternative is for the GOP to gets its act together and start trying to win elections by policy
I mean we've seen what happens with that. They'll cook up another single-voter-issue and choose a minority to attack. That's their way of "winning with policy".
I'd be fine with the DNC winning everything until a 3rd party gets established if it means we can get rid of the GOP as a major political player.
I've always wondered what would happen if we got a gun loving liberal that waves a bible around. Is it enough?
No. Manchin is outspokenly pro-coal, but the conservative media has convinced most the the pro-coal people in WV he is anti-coal, and he's very likely to lose the next election. Conservative media is very good at controlling the narrative and propagandizing. We are in a post-truth age for a significant proportion of the population.
The "facts don't care care about your feelings" crowd from a few years back sure does seem to be sensitive to facts and only give a shit about their feelings.
Wisconsin has entered the chat.
the fact that there are about 100 million Americans who didn't say they wouldn't support Trump says a lot about the state of America
truly sad state of things. It's disinformation like none other. These people are completely oblivious to the facts of his criminal activities because the media they consume is only focused on cultural issues. It's literally all they see. They have no ability to look things up or fact check or think beyond whatever their pod casts are telling them.
It's such a bigger issue about this country as a whole. Education has failed so many. Those same people will vote for people that want to further erode education. They also have lots of kids and groom them to believe nonsense and deny education's importance. They attack teachers and doctors as being "woke" etc..
I hope we can come back from this, but the reality is it gets much worse from here.
Just a reminder that Republicans have won the popular vote once in the last 30 years, despite holding office for 12 of them.
What a majority of people want doesn't really matter in our system.
Do you follow Mdotaut801@lemmy.world close enough to know he doesn't do both?
You’re right, we should start kicking them out
I suggest we help make it better too. By kicking them out.
Thats still dangerous, here in hungary, orban (trump's comrade) got about 33% of voters, yet he has 2/3 of delegates, which means total control, as we have a fokd up electoral system, and the opposition votes are stayed home. Meanwhile hungary have skyhigh, record high inflation, budget cuts, tax raises, the national currency value is abysmal, and the corruption is visible from the Moon...
Somebody's gotta fill out the left half of the bell curve
Now if we can just make sure those 64% actually go vote that would be nice.
The poll of 1,165 adults was conducted Aug. 10-14 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population.
That shouldn't be at the end of the article after I had to click on a separate article. Poor journalistic practices.
If your point is that it's a small sample, you're in for a surprise - that's about all you need to estimate something within about 3% for the US population. If they're doing stratification and such it might be even more efficient than that.
Sample size isn't the problem, claiming 0.0000035% applies to the other 99.9999965% is one however. All they need to do is add 'surveyed' after Americans and there would be no problem.
As dismayingly low as that appears, I think more or less as good as it’s gonna get for a while. Between Fox, Trump’s enablers/sycophants, and the man himself, they’ve been able to pretty much enrapture the lowest third of the bell curve, and it’s gonna take a while for that to pass - if it ever does.
I wonder how many of that 64% will actually vote?
Roughly half...
If only we had actual "one person, one vote" elections in the U.S. Instead we have a skewed system where rural and southern areas have more weight than coastal urban areas due to how the electoral college is distributed. It has been common for the popular vote to be opposite to the determined vote for president.
How are the numbers for Biden?
60% of Americans admit to planning to grudgingly vote for the "Not outright planning to install a dictatorship" guy.
(I actually like what he's done so far, insomuch as I can like any President who doesn't immediately seize the means)
Hahahaahaha you are funny liking pedo biden :)
I'd mention something about projecting, Trump trying to fuck his daughter, etc but I get the feeling your president speaks Russian.
You sure don't type like a native speaker.
This syncs up with the 30% who didn't understand the question or wanted to jerk around the poller.
I'd never vote for Trump, but i'm not really thrilled to vote for Biden either. I think both options suck.
Since there is no other option we'll end up with Biden again probably, just depends how much power hate and fear has nowadays.
I'm in Massachusetts so voting blue doesn't mean anything in the presidential race. With the divide between conservative and liberal getting worse and worse I wonder how the battleground states will swing this time around.
Please tell me you're gonna vote anyways
You don't just vote for a president. It's not presidential election day, it's voting day. The presidential vote is worthless but the rest isn't.
The primaries are where most of the magic happens too.
Most people ignore state and local positions but those greatly influence real world consequences. Federal law changes at a glacial pace due to all the bullshit. State stuff happens and takes effect usually within a couple of years here without a flip flop every 8 years. So yes, i'll be voting.
I've voted straight Democrat for 10 years and I hate it. I don't believe the US is as polarized as its portrayed. But our options are either "Fascist" or "At least we're not those guys". I HOPE ranked choice voting becomes a thing in our lifetime.
If you're in a solid blue state maybe think about joining us in a purple or red state and fight the good fight here. Tons of states are won by the slimmest of margins, and even the reddest states are like 20-30% blue. I'm not ready to give up on them yet.
I’ve been voting blue for over twenty years and gestures to everything. Maybe voting isn’t enough.
This 3 foot pile of dog shit in my living room is really disgusting and I don't like it one bit. On the other hand it was kinda disorganized in here before the dog shit and that was kinda sucky too.
Meaningless poll because the popular vote doesn't determine who becomes president. What matters is what percentage of the votes he gets in swing states.
They broke it out as 53% wouldn't support him if he's the GOP nominee, and another 11% wouldn't support him in November 2024.
...what's the difference between those two things?
Yeah, that confused me as well. I had to read that 3 times to figure out the distinction.
53% of Americans say they would definitely not support him if he’s the GOP nominee, and another 11% say they probably would not back him in November 2024.
"the GOP nominee" and "in November 2024" both refer to the same thing, but the phrasing change distracts from the definitely/probably thing.
Boy 53% definitely would not support is so bad for him. RCP has the average of polls at 44.4% Biden, 44% Trump, but if 53% definitely would not support Trump then he can only improve by 3 points at most and he'd have to rely on a 3rd party to get the vast majority of the remaining 9% of the electorate? That is a big ask.
The gop is pushing for a "unity party" led by rfk Jr to hurt dems, and attract never-trumper republicans. The Dems are not that stupid, but I'm not sure about the never-trumpers. The might prefer a protest vote to Biden.
I suppose in the event that Trump runs on a different platform? He is a bit soggy like that
I recall the polls by mainstream media saying that Trump stands no chance just before he became POTUS.
No chance to win the popular vote. Which was correct, but irrelevant.
I dunno. It's a long time before the finals, and in case of USA, one dramatic debate or a last-second revelation might shift the voters towards different candidate...
While this is very heartening to read, here's some fun American political numbers games for you :
Population of North Dakota: 780 Thousand souls
Population of California: 40 Million souls
both North Dakota and California are entitled to exactly 2 Senators each to represent their interests equally
As we've seen in plenty of Presidential elections since 2000 it matter where the votes are cast, and in what concentration, opposed to how many overall votes got towards any particular Presidential candidate
Research the bullshit the oligarchy pulled to get ND to be made a state. They had to rewrite a shit load of laws and ended up with, I think, 10 new senators rather than the two they should have gotten for the Dakota territory.
That fuckery is still all the way up our ass to this day.
How many of them actually vote?
Now subtract the people who claim they wouldn't support Trump from that number and you're back around 2016 numbers.
National polls have little value since that isn't how President is Voted for. You need by State weighted by Electoral Votes.
Does not matter. Those remaining 36% are located in strategic places to make up for majority of the land mass - aka electoral college - to bring back Cheeto
I'll take it a step further and not support anyone in dc. There's not an honest person to be found in politics.
@lemmy.world
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
go to feed...
@lemmy.world
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
go to feed...
That is embarrassingly low.
save